Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cheltenham Town v Cambridge United

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cheltenham Town (Local)

Prediction 16.38%6.10fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.285%
Kelly -0.342%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.84%16.48%16.24%18.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.585.506.0020.00%17.91%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cambridge United (Visit)

Prediction 58.31%1.71fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -5.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.39%58.18%58.53%59.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.611.6565.36%62.44%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.31%3.95fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.335%
Kelly -0.451%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.57%25.34%25.23%26.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.633.603.9030.30%27.58%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cheltenham Town (Local): 16.38%; Cambridge United (Visit): 58.31%; Draw: 25.31%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 16.02%EV -1.71%E -0.285%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.33%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.65%EV -1.31%E -0.335%K -0.451%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 16.02%EV -1.71%E -0.285%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.33%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.65%EV -1.31%E -0.335%K -0.451%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 13:50
Bet Victor🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.69%EV -1.71%E -0.285%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.85%EV -6.70%E -4.19%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.45%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 12:34
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -1.71%E -0.285%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.71%EV -8.45%E -5.38%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -3.84%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 13:50
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -1.71%E -0.285%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.31%EV -8.45%E -5.38%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 13:50
SportsBet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -1.71%E -0.285%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -9.62%E -6.20%K -17.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -1.71%E -0.285%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -9.62%E -6.20%K -17.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-06 12:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.84%EV -1.71%E -0.285%K -0.342%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.19%EV -10.78%E -7.05%K -20.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -16.49%E -5.00%K -7.17%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-06 13:50
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -3.35%E -0.567%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -7.87%E -4.98%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 12:35
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.80%EV -3.35%E -0.567%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.00%EV -7.87%E -4.98%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 12:35
Pinnacle🎯5.85I 17.09%NM 16.23%EV -4.17%E -0.712%K -0.859%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.98%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.79%EV -3.08%E -0.804%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:50
DraftKings🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -5.80%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.89%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -2.57%E -0.668%K -0.903%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-06 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -5.80%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.65%EV -6.70%E -4.19%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 12:35
Betr (AU)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.80%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-05 08:49
Coolbet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.80%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.75%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-05 09:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.98%EV -5.80%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.78%EV -7.28%E -4.58%K -12.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-06 11:54
Bet Right🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.97%EV -5.80%E -1.01%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -6.70%E -4.19%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.62%EV -12.70%E -3.68%K -5.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-06 11:54
Marathon Bet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -6.62%E -1.16%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.68%EV -7.87%E -4.98%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 13:50
1xBet🎯5.63I 17.76%NM 16.56%EV -7.77%E -1.38%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -6.70%E -4.19%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 13:50
Codere (IT)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.28%EV -8.26%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -8.45%E -5.38%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -10.16%E -2.86%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-06 12:35
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -9.90%E -1.80%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -3.78%E -2.29%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-06 11:54
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -9.90%E -1.80%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.72%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-06 11:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -9.90%E -1.80%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 11:54
Fanatics🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -9.90%E -1.80%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-06 11:10
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -9.90%E -1.80%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-06 12:35
BoyleSports🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -9.90%E -1.80%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -8.45%E -5.38%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.10%E -1.36%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 12:15
Everygame🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -9.90%E -1.80%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -8.45%E -5.38%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-06 13:50
PlayUp🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -9.90%E -1.80%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.40%EV -9.62%E -6.20%K -17.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-06 12:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.54%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 11:54
Neds🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -11.54%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -5.53%E -3.42%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.37%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 11:54
BetUS🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.89%EV -11.54%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.11%EV -8.45%E -5.38%K -14.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -7.63%E -2.09%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-06 12:35
Unibet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -13.18%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:35
Grosvenor🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -13.18%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:35
Casumo🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -13.18%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:35
BetRivers🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -13.18%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -13.18%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -13.18%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -13.18%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:35
TABtouch🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.34%EV -13.18%E -2.49%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.39%EV -4.95%E -3.04%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 13:35
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.42%EV -14.00%E -2.67%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.17%EV -6.70%E -4.19%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-06 12:35
LiveScore Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -14.00%E -2.67%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-06 13:35
Virgin Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -14.00%E -2.67%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-06 13:35
LeoVegas🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.36%EV -14.00%E -2.67%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -11.43%E -3.27%K -4.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-06 13:35
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -18.09%E -3.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.12%E -3.80%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.90%E -2.47%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 10:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.00I 14.29%NM 14.26%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.48%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.26%0.2%2026-04-06 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.20I 13.89%NM 13.82%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.67%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-04-06 13:50
Matchbook7.00I 14.29%NM 14.21%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-04-06 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.23%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.16%0.6%2026-04-06 13:50
Smarkets6.80I 14.71%NM 14.51%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.18%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.31%1.3%2026-04-06 13:50