Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Barnet v Salford City

Inicio: 2026-08-15 14:00 UTC

Final: Barnet 3–1 Salford City

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Barnet (Local)

Predicción 40.85%2.45momio equitativo
EV -4.01%
Ventaja -1.71%
Kelly -2.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.24%40.86%40.81%41.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.262.252.3546.51%44.31%44.44%42.55%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Salford City (Visitante)

Predicción 32.02%3.12momio equitativo
EV -3.93%
Ventaja -1.31%
Kelly -1.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.98%32.07%32.05%33.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.902.903.0035.71%34.43%34.48%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.13%3.69momio equitativo
EV -0.701%
Ventaja -0.192%
Kelly -0.264%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.97%27.07%27.14%28.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.383.403.6631.75%29.62%29.41%27.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Barnet (Local): 40.85%; Salford City (Visitante): 32.02%; Empate: 27.13%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.69. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.66, con un valor esperado de -0.701%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.59%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.35%EV -8.42%E -2.94%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.06%EV -0.701%E -0.192%K -0.264%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-15 13:45
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.45%EV -4.01%E -1.71%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -3.69%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 13:45
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 13:34
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.26%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.63%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 12:14
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:48
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:47
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 13:50
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -2.33%E -0.647%K -0.896%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 13:45
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 12:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 12:14
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 12:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 12:14
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.05%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.78%E -2.70%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.74%EV -6.46%E -2.82%K -5.01%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.20%EV -10.02%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.06%EV -2.87%E -0.802%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 13:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.24%EV -7.69%E -3.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.24%EV -7.69%E -3.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:45
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.24%EV -7.69%E -3.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.14%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:34
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.62%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.29%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.09%EV -2.60%E -0.724%K -1.00%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 13:54
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.78%E -2.70%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -2.33%E -0.647%K -0.896%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 13:44
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -3.93%E -1.31%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 12:19
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 13:34
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:44
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 12:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:54
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 13:34
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 13:45
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-08 08:00
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.81%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -11.82%E -3.64%K -5.26%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 13:44
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 13:45
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.24%EV -8.09%E -3.60%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 13:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.96%EV -9.32%E -4.20%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -9.11%E -2.72%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 13:54
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -7.78%E -2.70%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -5.04%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:54
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -5.53%E -1.88%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.76%E -2.28%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 13:54
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -10.14%E -4.61%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -10.34%E -3.69%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-15 13:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.92%EV -11.77%E -5.45%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.02%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -14.54%E -4.62%K -6.76%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 08:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.92%EV -11.77%E -5.45%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.02%EV -8.74%E -3.07%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.06%EV -14.54%E -4.62%K -6.76%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 08:00
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -12.18%E -5.66%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -7.14%E -2.46%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.23%EV -10.47%E -3.17%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 12:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets2.48I 40.32%NM 40.12%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.62%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-08-15 13:55
Matchbook2.42I 41.32%NM 41.07%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.86%0.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-08-15 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.06%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.31%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.63%1.5%2026-08-15 13:55