Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barnet v Accrington Stanley

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: Barnet 2–1 Accrington Stanley

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barnet (Local)

Prediction 59.61%1.68fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -2.89%
Kelly -7.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.15%59.70%59.73%63.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.521.551.6071.43%65.69%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Accrington Stanley (Visit)

Prediction 17.90%5.59fair odd
EV +7.41%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.110%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.89%17.76%17.89%19.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.305.106.0020.83%18.86%19.61%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.49%4.45fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -0.604%
Kelly -0.785%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.27%22.54%22.39%24.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.134.204.3326.32%24.22%23.81%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barnet (Local): 59.61%; Accrington Stanley (Visit): 17.90%; Draw: 22.49%. For Accrington Stanley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.59. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.66%EV -15.36%E -10.82%K -36.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.07%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.27%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 14:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.67%EV -15.95%E -11.31%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -16.55%E -11.82%K -41.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -16.55%E -11.82%K -41.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV +7.41%E +1.23%K +1.48%G +0.110%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-07 14:10
Pinnacle🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -8.20%E -5.33%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -1.54%E -0.280%K -0.343%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 22.31%EV -5.76%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 15:15
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -3.33%E -0.617%K -0.757%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -13.41%E -3.48%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-08 09:25
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.72%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -3.33%E -0.617%K -0.757%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -13.41%E -3.48%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-08 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.78%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -6.02%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.23%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 14:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -6.02%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 22:50
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -7.01%E -4.50%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -6.02%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 14:05
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.45%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -6.02%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -5.82%E -3.68%K -10.04%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -6.02%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 01:19
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.61%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -6.02%E -1.15%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 17:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.45%EV -9.40%E -6.18%K -18.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.67%EV -6.91%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 14:16
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.80%EV -9.40%E -6.18%K -18.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV -6.91%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:06
LowVig.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.80%EV -9.40%E -6.18%K -18.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.48%EV -6.91%E -1.33%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.77%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.17%EV -8.70%E -1.71%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 17:29
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -8.70%E -1.71%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-05 23:05
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.31%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.03I 19.88%NM 18.51%EV -9.96%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 17:39
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.19%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.87%EV -2.61%E -0.604%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-08 22:54
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -4.63%E -2.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -2.61%E -0.604%K -0.785%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -2.61%E -0.604%K -0.785%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 22:54
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 22:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.40%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.94%EV -4.41%E -1.04%K -1.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 22:54
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-07 14:04
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.54%E -1.32%K -1.73%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-08 22:44
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 14:05
Bet Right🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -7.01%E -4.50%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 22:45
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -7.01%E -4.50%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 22:43
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -7.01%E -4.50%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 14:05
BetUS🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.75%EV -7.01%E -4.50%K -12.52%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-08 22:45
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.55%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 15:10
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.55%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.22%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 15:09
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.07%EV -8.20%E -5.33%K -15.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 21:24
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -7.61%E -4.91%K -13.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -13.41%E -3.48%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-07 14:10
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.59%E -7.06%K -21.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-09 01:14
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.61%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.49%E -2.10%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -14.53%E -3.82%K -5.19%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 08:05
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.33%EV -8.80%E -5.75%K -16.61%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.53%EV -12.28%E -2.51%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -7.79%E -1.90%K -2.51%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 21:24
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -14.07%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 15:51
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -14.07%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 15:51
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -14.07%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 15:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.42%E -4.09%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -14.07%E -2.93%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -10.04%E -2.51%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-09 15:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.59I 62.89%NM 60.28%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.43%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.29%4.3%2026-09-09 16:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 60.43%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%4.7%2026-09-09 16:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 60.43%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.36%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.21%4.7%2026-09-09 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 60.12%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-09-09 16:51
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 60.08%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%6.0%2026-09-09 17:40