La escuela de los momios

Accrington Stanley v Fleetwood Town

Inicio: 2026-04-11 14:00 UTC

Final: Accrington Stanley 1–2 Fleetwood Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Accrington Stanley (Local)

Predicción 29.22%3.42momio equitativo
EV -3.57%
Ventaja -1.08%
Kelly -1.55%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.15%29.34%29.23%32.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.803.073.133.3035.71%32.60%32.00%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Fleetwood Town (Visitante)

Predicción 41.92%2.39momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.636%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.86%41.78%41.92%43.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.102.242.222.3547.62%44.59%45.05%42.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 28.86%3.46momio equitativo
EV -4.18%
Ventaja -1.26%
Kelly -1.80%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.04%28.88%28.85%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.193.203.3234.72%31.37%31.25%30.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Bet Victor3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 13:45
1xBet3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.57%E -1.08%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 13:50
Pinnacle3.29I 30.40%NM 29.01%EV -3.86%E -1.17%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.24%EV -5.27%E -2.33%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.75%EV -4.18%E -1.26%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 03:35
DraftKings3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-11 13:45
Paddy Power3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -5.03%E -1.55%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 12:00
Coral3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 10:35
Unibet (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 10:09
Neds3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 10:35
Ladbrokes (AU)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 10:35
Ladbrokes (UK)3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 10:35
BetMGM3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -6.20%E -1.91%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 10:35
Marathon Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.94%E -3.13%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 13:44
NordicBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.94%E -3.13%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 05:05
Betsson3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.88%EV -6.94%E -3.13%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 05:04
Fanatics3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -4.76%E -1.44%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 23:15
SportsBet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 11:44
Sky Bet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 11:45
Tipico (DE)3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 05:05
Betway3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:45
BetUS3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.49%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 13:50
Coolbet3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-10 06:00
Betr (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-10 05:59
BetOnline.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.84%EV -6.94%E -3.13%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.67%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 06:00
LowVig.ag3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.84%EV -6.94%E -3.13%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.67%EV -6.49%E -2.00%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 06:00
PlayUp3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -7.95%E -2.52%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-10 14:15
PointsBet (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 06:00
theScore Bet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 05:59
888sport3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 04:15
William Hill3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 04:15
888sport (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 04:15
Mr Green (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -7.78%E -3.54%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 04:15
BoyleSports3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-10 05:10
Codere (IT)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.55%EV -8.62%E -3.95%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.22%EV -10.53%E -3.40%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-11 09:00
Everygame3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.09%EV -9.88%E -4.59%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-11 06:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 28.15%EV -9.41%E -3.04%K -4.48%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.55%EV -11.97%E -5.70%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.30%EV -16.88%E -5.86%K -8.98%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-11 13:27
Bet Right3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -10.87%E -3.56%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-10 06:00
Unibet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
Unibet (NL)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:04
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
BetRivers2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:04
Unibet (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
Casumo2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
TABtouch2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
Grosvenor2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
betPARX2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
Svenska Spel2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
ATG (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.61%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.86%EV -1.49%E -0.636%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -7.65%E -2.39%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-09 16:05
Virgin Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.88%EV -2.33%E -1.00%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-09 16:05
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.88%EV -2.33%E -1.00%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-09 16:05
LeoVegas2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -18.18%E -6.49%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.88%EV -2.33%E -1.00%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -9.09%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-09 16:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.60I 27.78%NM 27.55%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.39%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.06%0.8%2026-04-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.50I 28.57%NM 28.24%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.25%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.51%1.2%2026-04-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-04-11 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-04-11 13:55
Smarkets3.45I 28.99%NM 28.08%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.12%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%3.2%2026-04-11 13:55