Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Accrington Stanley v Colchester United

Inicio: 2026-08-15 14:00 UTC

Final: Accrington Stanley 2–2 Colchester United

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Accrington Stanley (Local)

Predicción 32.45%3.08momio equitativo
EV -1.36%
Ventaja -0.448%
Kelly -0.667%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.04

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.42%32.57%32.44%34.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.792.833.0439.22%35.80%35.40%32.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Colchester United (Visitante)

Predicción 38.23%2.62momio equitativo
EV -0.598%
Ventaja -0.230%
Kelly -0.374%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.36%38.09%38.24%38.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.472.452.6042.55%40.43%40.82%38.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.32%3.41momio equitativo
EV -3.24%
Ventaja -0.982%
Kelly -1.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.19%29.34%29.32%30.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.143.133.3033.90%31.84%32.00%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Accrington Stanley (Local): 32.45%; Colchester United (Visitante): 38.23%; Empate: 29.32%. Para Colchester United (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.62. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.60, con un valor esperado de -0.598%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.42%EV -1.36%E -0.448%K -0.667%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.83%EV -5.95%E -2.42%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.75%EV -5.88%E -1.83%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-15 13:15
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -4.28%E -1.45%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 13:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.31%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 13:19
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.80%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 13:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 13:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:19
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 13:09
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 13:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 13:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.04%E -4.01%K -6.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 13:09
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.09%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV -3.24%E -0.982%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 13:30
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -4.71%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:43
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.94%EV -4.71%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 13:42
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.40%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.71%EV -4.71%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 13:39
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 13:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -6.55%E -2.28%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:50
1xBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.56%EV -6.88%E -2.40%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.30%EV -6.47%E -2.03%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 13:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -2.51%E -0.984%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 08:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -2.51%E -0.984%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 08:20
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.98%EV -2.51%E -0.984%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 08:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -3.24%E -0.982%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:30
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -3.24%E -0.982%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:29
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.21%EV -7.48%E -3.09%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.35%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 13:15
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.21%EV -7.48%E -3.09%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.35%EV -7.64%E -2.42%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 13:14
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 13:09
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -7.53%E -2.64%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.93%EV -10.57%E -3.47%K -5.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-15 13:39
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -3.24%E -0.982%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -4.71%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 11:20
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 13:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -9.01%E -3.79%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 13:19
PlayUp🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -9.15%E -3.27%K -5.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -10.16%E -4.32%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.19%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-15 13:15
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 11:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 11:20
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -4.71%E -1.45%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 11:19
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.64%EV -6.33%E -2.58%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 13:54
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -8.24%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 13:19
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -10.77%E -3.92%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.98%EV -9.01%E -3.79%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.16%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 13:24
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.41%EV -12.39%E -4.59%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.39%EV -10.16%E -4.32%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.19%EV -6.17%E -1.93%K -2.81%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 11:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:14
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -14.01%E -5.29%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -0.598%E -0.230%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%EV -9.10%E -2.94%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.67%EV -17.26%E -6.77%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.36%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -13.50%E -4.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.67%EV -17.26%E -6.77%K -11.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.36%EV -4.42%E -1.77%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.97%EV -13.50%E -4.58%K -6.92%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 13:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00%1.0%2026-08-15 13:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00%1.0%2026-08-15 13:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00%1.0%2026-08-15 13:39
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.07%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.00%1.0%2026-08-15 13:40
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.19%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.75%1.8%2026-08-15 13:45