Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wimbledon v Doncaster Rovers

Inicio: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: Wimbledon 1–0 Doncaster Rovers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wimbledon (Local)

Predicción 35.91%2.78momio equitativo
EV -4.85%
Ventaja -1.83%
Kelly -2.94%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.36%36.08%35.87%38.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.332.522.552.6542.92%39.65%39.22%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Doncaster Rovers (Visitante)

Predicción 36.35%2.75momio equitativo
EV +4.69%
Ventaja +1.63%
Kelly +2.49%
Crecimiento +0.117%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.88

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.70%36.13%36.33%37.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.612.552.8840.82%38.25%39.22%34.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.74%3.60momio equitativo
EV -2.90%
Ventaja -0.828%
Kelly -1.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.51%27.80%27.80%28.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.313.303.5031.75%30.19%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Wimbledon (Local): 35.91%; Doncaster Rovers (Visitante): 36.35%; Empate: 27.74%. Para Doncaster Rovers (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.75. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.88, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.69%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -12.75%E -5.25%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV +4.69%E +1.63%K +2.49%G +0.117%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 00:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -12.75%E -5.25%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV +4.69%E +1.63%K +2.49%G +0.117%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 00:30
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -12.75%E -5.25%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV +4.69%E +1.63%K +2.49%G +0.117%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 00:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -12.75%E -5.25%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV +4.69%E +1.63%K +2.49%G +0.117%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 00:29
betPARX🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -12.75%E -5.25%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV +4.69%E +1.63%K +2.49%G +0.117%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 00:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -12.75%E -5.25%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV +4.69%E +1.63%K +2.49%G +0.117%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 00:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.76%EV -12.75%E -5.25%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV +4.69%E +1.63%K +2.49%G +0.117%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 00:29
TABtouch🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -15.62%E -6.65%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -0.038%E -0.014%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -12.61%E -4.00%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -15.62%E -6.65%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -0.038%E -0.014%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -12.61%E -4.00%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -15.62%E -6.65%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -0.038%E -0.014%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -12.61%E -4.00%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-05 23:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -15.62%E -6.65%K -11.57%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -0.038%E -0.014%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -12.61%E -4.00%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-05 23:05
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.66%EV -16.34%E -7.01%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -0.038%E -0.014%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -12.61%E -4.00%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.66%EV -16.34%E -7.01%K -12.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -0.038%E -0.014%K -0.022%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.59%EV -12.61%E -4.00%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-05 23:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.51%EV -8.80%E -3.46%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.39%EV -4.76%E -1.82%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-09 17:40
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.28%EV -5.92%E -2.26%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.56%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.16%EV -2.90%E -0.828%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-06 10:35
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.20%EV -5.92%E -2.26%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.33%EV -3.73%E -1.08%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-08 19:15
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -5.92%E -2.26%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-07 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -5.92%E -2.26%K -3.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-07 11:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 08:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 20:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.41%EV -8.80%E -3.46%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.57%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 17:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -5.49%E -2.11%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -11.22%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 14:10
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.74%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.16%EV -6.22%E -2.41%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.10%EV -7.89%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.74%EV -6.28%E -2.41%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.16%EV -6.22%E -2.41%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.10%EV -7.89%E -2.38%K -3.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-08 08:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -4.85%E -1.83%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-07 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 10:35
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 14:05
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.06%E -2.11%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-07 11:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -7.06%E -2.11%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-07 11:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-08 08:00
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 11:35
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.57%EV -7.06%E -2.11%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-08 07:39
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-08 08:00
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 09:00
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 21:10
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 21:05
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.07%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.87%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 09:10
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -11.22%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 08:38
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.75%EV -7.31%E -2.87%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -11.22%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 08:35
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -2.90%E -0.828%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-07 21:45
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -2.90%E -0.828%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-07 21:48
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-07 21:55
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 17:40
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 14:05
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -5.67%E -1.67%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-08 08:39
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -9.83%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-05 23:05
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 22:30
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 22:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 22:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.13%E -3.65%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 22:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.60%EV -8.44%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.46%EV -9.49%E -3.81%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -9.83%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-05 23:05
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -10.94%E -4.47%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-07 11:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.64I 37.88%NM 36.00%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.20%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.80%5.2%2026-09-09 16:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 35.71%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%6.1%2026-09-09 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 35.71%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%6.1%2026-09-09 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 35.71%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.71%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%6.1%2026-09-09 14:20
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 35.56%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%6.5%2026-09-09 16:41