Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wigan Athletic v Stockport County FC

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

Final: Wigan Athletic 0–4 Stockport County FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Wigan Athletic (Local)

Prediction 31.43%3.18fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.828%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.60%31.39%31.44%32.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.953.1035.71%33.85%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stockport County FC (Visit)

Prediction 42.09%2.38fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.45%42.05%42.09%42.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.212.202.2646.51%45.33%45.45%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.549%
Kelly -0.752%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%26.57%26.48%28.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.493.503.7031.25%28.69%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wigan Athletic (Local): 31.43%; Stockport County FC (Visit): 42.09%; Draw: 26.48%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -2.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -2.57%E -0.828%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -15.27%E -4.77%K -6.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 13:55
Pinnacle🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -4.77%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.37%EV -4.87%E -2.16%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.02%EV -2.56%E -0.696%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 11:45
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 05:50
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -2.03%E -0.549%K -0.752%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 08:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 01:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.28%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.28%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:24
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 11:33
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 08:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 21:00
1xBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.24%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.83%EV -5.72%E -2.55%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.93%EV -7.86%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:30
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.99%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.94%EV -8.38%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:35
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 21:00
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 20:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 21:00
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 11:35
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 11:30
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:20
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 21:00
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 08:20
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 11:35
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 11:35
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -2.03%E -0.549%K -0.752%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 11:30
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 06:10
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 08:45
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 14:24
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 21:15
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 21:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 21:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 21:15
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-02 21:20
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 08:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.62%EV -8.24%E -3.78%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 01:55
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 00:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.65%EV -8.66%E -3.99%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.65%EV -8.66%E -3.99%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 11:40
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.65%EV -8.66%E -3.99%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 11:40
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.65%EV -8.66%E -3.99%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 11:40
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -10.42%E -3.66%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.45%EV -9.08%E -4.20%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -10.42%E -3.66%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.45%EV -9.08%E -4.20%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 11:40
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 20:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.92%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91%0.4%2026-09-04 12:30
Matchbook3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-09-04 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.98%1.6%2026-09-04 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.98%1.6%2026-09-04 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.24%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.15%2.3%2026-09-04 14:20