Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wigan Athletic v Stockport County FC

Inicio: 2026-09-05 11:30 UTC

Final: Wigan Athletic 0–4 Stockport County FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Wigan Athletic (Local)

Predicción 31.43%3.18momio equitativo
EV -2.57%
Ventaja -0.828%
Kelly -1.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.60%31.39%31.44%32.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.802.952.953.1035.71%33.85%33.90%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Stockport County FC (Visitante)

Predicción 42.09%2.38momio equitativo
EV -4.87%
Ventaja -2.16%
Kelly -3.87%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.45%42.05%42.09%42.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.212.202.2646.51%45.33%45.45%44.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.48%3.78momio equitativo
EV -2.03%
Ventaja -0.549%
Kelly -0.752%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.27%26.57%26.48%28.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.493.503.7031.25%28.69%28.57%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Wigan Athletic (Local): 31.43%; Stockport County FC (Visitante): 42.09%; Empate: 26.48%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.78. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.70, con un valor esperado de -2.03%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -2.57%E -0.828%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -15.27%E -4.77%K -6.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 13:55
Pinnacle🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV -4.77%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.37%EV -4.87%E -2.16%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.02%EV -2.56%E -0.696%K -0.955%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 11:45
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 05:50
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -2.03%E -0.549%K -0.752%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 08:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 20:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 01:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.28%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.28%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:24
betano_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 11:33
Bet Victor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 08:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 21:00
1xBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.24%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.83%EV -5.72%E -2.55%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.93%EV -7.86%E -2.26%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:30
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 14:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.99%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.94%EV -8.38%E -2.42%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:35
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 21:00
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-03 20:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 21:00
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 11:35
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.29%E -2.35%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-04 11:30
Neds🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:20
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 08:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 21:00
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-04 08:20
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 11:35
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.28%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.57%EV -6.56%E -2.95%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 11:35
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -2.03%E -0.549%K -0.752%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-04 11:30
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 06:10
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-03 08:45
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 14:24
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 21:15
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 21:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 21:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.40%E -3.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 21:15
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-02 21:20
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 08:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.62%EV -8.24%E -3.78%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.09%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-03 01:55
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-03 00:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.65%EV -8.66%E -3.99%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.65%EV -8.66%E -3.99%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 11:40
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.65%EV -8.66%E -3.99%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 11:40
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.38%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.65%EV -8.66%E -3.99%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.30%E -3.37%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 11:40
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -10.42%E -3.66%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.45%EV -9.08%E -4.20%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.42%EV -10.42%E -3.66%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.45%EV -9.08%E -4.20%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 11:40
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -12.00%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.50%E -4.42%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-02 20:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.17%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.92%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.91%0.4%2026-09-04 12:30
Matchbook◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.71%1.2%2026-09-04 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.98%1.6%2026-09-04 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.98%1.6%2026-09-04 12:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 29.61%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.24%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.15%2.3%2026-09-04 14:20