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Milton Keynes Dons v Luton

2026-10-17 11:30 UTC — League 1

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Milton Keynes Dons (Local)

Prediction 33.82%2.96fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.39%33.72%34.09%34.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.732.752.8538.02%36.58%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luton (Visit)

Prediction 40.24%2.49fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.09%40.38%39.89%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.302.302.4045.45%43.42%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.94%3.86fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.445%
Kelly -0.605%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.01%25.89%26.03%27.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.553.503.7930.77%28.18%28.57%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Milton Keynes Dons (Local): 33.82%; Luton (Visit): 40.24%; Draw: 25.94%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.79, with an expected value of -1.69%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -3.60%E -1.26%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.46%E -3.24%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 19:25
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -3.60%E -1.26%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -11.48%E -5.22%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-10 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -3.60%E -1.26%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -11.48%E -5.22%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 16:55
Pinnacle🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.61%EV -4.62%E -1.64%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.39%EV -7.86%E -3.43%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.01%EV -1.69%E -0.445%K -0.605%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.29%E -1.89%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.46%E -3.24%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 20:00
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -5.29%E -1.89%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.46%E -3.24%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -11.80%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 19:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -3.43%E -1.43%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 16:40
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -3.43%E -1.43%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 16:40
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.03%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -5.32%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 16:39
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.47%E -4.21%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.47%E -4.21%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.47%E -4.21%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 16:50
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -6.98%E -2.54%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.47%E -4.21%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 16:49
1xBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.21%EV -8.00%E -2.94%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.94%EV -6.25%E -2.68%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.85%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-10 16:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -8.67%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.34%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 16:39
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -8.67%E -3.21%K -5.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.47%E -4.21%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -15.69%E -4.83%K -6.98%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-10 20:10
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -10.37%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -5.45%E -2.32%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-10 16:39
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -10.37%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.46%E -3.24%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-10 16:40
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -10.37%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.81%EV -8.26%E -3.62%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -10.37%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.81%EV -8.26%E -3.62%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -10.37%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.81%EV -8.26%E -3.62%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:01
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -10.37%E -3.91%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.81%EV -8.26%E -3.62%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -9.21%E -2.63%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:01
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -11.04%E -4.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -9.47%E -4.21%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-10 14:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.12%EV -11.04%E -4.20%K -6.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.88%EV -9.47%E -4.21%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 31.27%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.40%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%13.4%2026-10-10 19:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 31.27%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.40%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%13.4%2026-10-10 19:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 31.27%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.40%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%13.4%2026-10-10 19:15
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 31.42%1.90I 52.63%NM 38.69%2.46I 40.65%NM 29.89%36.0%2026-10-10 19:55