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Milton Keynes Dons v Luton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Milton Keynes Dons (Local)
Prediction 27.61%3.62fair odd
EV -0.593%
Edge -0.165%
Kelly -0.228%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.33%27.47%27.64%28.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.363.353.6031.75%29.75%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luton (Visit)
Prediction 47.69%2.10fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.86%47.80%47.68%50.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.961.952.0255.56%51.14%51.28%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.70%4.05fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.365%
Kelly -0.487%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.99
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.79%24.73%24.68%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.723.703.9928.17%26.90%27.03%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Milton Keynes Dons (Local): 27.61%; Luton (Visit): 47.69%; Draw: 24.70%. For Milton Keynes Dons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -0.593%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -0.593%E -0.165%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -14.16%E -7.87%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-10-17 11:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -1.97%E -0.556%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -8.44%E -4.39%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -1.97%E -0.556%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -8.44%E -4.39%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -3.68%E -0.943%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-17 11:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 11:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.27%EV -7.48%E -3.86%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 11:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -8.91%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-17 11:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -3.35%E -0.958%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -8.91%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.80%EV -4.46%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.09%EV -4.62%E -2.31%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 24.11%EV -1.46%E -0.365%K -0.487%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-17 11:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -4.73%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.58%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.12%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -4.73%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.58%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.12%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.60%EV -4.62%E -2.31%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -3.68%E -0.943%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-17 11:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -4.62%E -2.31%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -4.62%E -2.31%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -3.68%E -0.943%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.60%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.39%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-17 11:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.08%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.35%EV -4.91%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-17 11:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 11:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -7.48%E -3.86%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-17 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -7.48%E -3.86%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-17 11:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.18%EV -7.96%E -4.12%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-17 11:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-17 11:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.15%EV -8.44%E -4.39%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -8.91%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.12%E -1.80%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -9.39%E -4.94%K -10.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.87%EV -5.58%E -2.82%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.43%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-17 11:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -9.85%E -2.70%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-17 11:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -7.50%E -2.24%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -8.44%E -4.39%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.98%EV -7.77%E -2.33%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.43%EV -6.05%E -3.07%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.34I 29.94%NM 27.84%EV -7.77%E -2.33%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-17 11:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -3.67%E -1.82%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -8.62%E -2.33%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.15%E -1.62%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-17 11:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-17 11:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-17 11:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-17 11:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.88%E -2.69%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -8.91%E -4.67%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.82%EV -7.48%E -3.86%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -11.09%E -3.08%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-17 11:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -10.26%E -3.16%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -12.73%E -6.96%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -7.38%E -1.97%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-10-17 11:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -13.02%E -4.13%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.86%EV -6.05%E -3.07%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -13.02%E -4.13%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.99%EV -6.53%E -3.33%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.62%EV -13.02%E -4.13%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.99%EV -6.53%E -3.33%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.55%EV -13.02%E -4.13%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.12%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.55%EV -13.02%E -4.13%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.12%EV -7.01%E -3.59%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -12.32%E -3.47%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-17 10:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 0.6% | 2026-10-17 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 0.6% | 2026-10-17 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 0.6% | 2026-10-17 11:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 0.6% | 2026-10-17 11:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.12% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09% | 0.9% | 2026-10-17 11:25 |