Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Mansfield Town v Luton

Início: 2026-08-30 14:00 UTC

Final: Mansfield Town 5–2 Luton

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Mansfield Town (Local)

Previsão 30.82%3.24odd justa
EV -1.36%
Vantagem -0.425%
Kelly -0.618%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.20%30.83%30.80%32.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.752.983.003.2036.36%33.51%33.33%31.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Luton (Visitante)

Previsão 43.24%2.31odd justa
EV -2.72%
Vantagem -1.21%
Kelly -2.17%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.25

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.36%43.24%43.26%44.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.052.162.152.2548.78%46.27%46.51%44.44%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 25.94%3.86odd justa
EV -1.43%
Vantagem -0.378%
Kelly -0.512%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.27%25.93%25.94%28.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.553.603.8030.30%28.17%27.78%26.32%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Mansfield Town (Local): 30.82%; Luton (Visitante): 43.24%; Empate: 25.94%. Para Mansfield Town (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.24. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.20, com valor esperado de -1.36%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -1.36%E -0.425%K -0.618%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -14.40%E -4.36%K -6.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 13:55
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 30.74%EV -3.52%E -1.12%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.54%EV -4.45%E -2.01%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.73%EV -2.99%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 13:50
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.69%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.24%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -5.33%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 13:45
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -2.73%E -0.728%K -0.993%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 13:55
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 13:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 13:30
betano_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 13:44
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 13:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 13:30
Bovada🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 13:55
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -13.11%E -3.91%K -5.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -11.36%E -5.54%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 12:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.94%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.89%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -2.73%E -0.728%K -0.993%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 13:54
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 13:30
Neds🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 13:30
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 13:54
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.16%EV -5.98%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.78%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 13:54
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.68%EV -6.29%E -2.07%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.98%EV -6.18%E -2.85%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.34%EV -8.18%E -2.31%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 13:30
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 13:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -4.88%E -2.22%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 13:25
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.01%EV -8.34%E -3.93%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -2.73%E -0.728%K -0.993%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 13:54
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 13:30
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 13:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -9.20%E -4.38%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 13:55
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 13:25
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 13:55
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.20%E -4.38%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 13:55
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.20%E -4.38%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 13:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -9.20%E -4.38%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-30 13:45
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 13:55
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -11.36%E -5.54%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -4.03%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 13:54
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 13:25
TAB🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.20%E -4.38%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 13:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.81%EV -9.07%E -3.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.47%EV -7.47%E -3.49%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -11.81%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 13:30
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -10.61%E -3.66%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -9.20%E -4.38%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -1.43%E -0.378%K -0.512%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-30 13:15
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.61%E -3.66%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.04%E -3.27%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-30 08:45
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:20
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:20
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.72%E -1.21%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.62%E -1.84%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-30 13:20
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -11.22%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -11.36%E -5.54%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.49%EV -9.22%E -2.63%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.49%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 13:20
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.49%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 13:20
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.49%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.49%EV -5.74%E -2.63%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -15.23%E -5.54%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.36%EV -6.18%E -2.85%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-30 13:20
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -15.23%E -5.54%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.36%EV -6.18%E -2.85%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.01%EV -10.51%E -3.05%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-30 13:19
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.24%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-30 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.24%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-30 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.24%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-30 13:50
Matchbook◎3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.24%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-30 13:50
Smarkets◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.13%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%2.1%2026-08-30 13:55