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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Leyton Orient v Stevenage

Inicio: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Final: Leyton Orient 1–0 Stevenage

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Leyton Orient (Local)

Predicción 40.36%2.48momio equitativo
EV -3.15%
Ventaja -1.31%
Kelly -2.25%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.26%40.39%40.38%42.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.122.282.302.4047.17%43.86%43.48%41.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Stevenage (Visitante)

Predicción 30.85%3.24momio equitativo
EV +0.249%
Ventaja +0.077%
Kelly +0.111%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.88%30.76%30.80%32.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.053.003.2534.48%32.79%33.33%30.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.80%3.47momio equitativo
EV -2.08%
Ventaja -0.613%
Kelly -0.868%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.39%28.85%28.82%30.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.233.253.4033.33%30.99%30.77%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Leyton Orient (Local): 40.36%; Stevenage (Visitante): 30.85%; Empate: 28.80%. Para Stevenage (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.24. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.249%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.249%E +0.077%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.249%E +0.077%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.249%E +0.077%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.249%E +0.077%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.249%E +0.077%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.249%E +0.077%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.249%E +0.077%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.249%E +0.077%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.44%EV -4.36%E -1.84%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.43%EV -2.84%E -0.900%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.13%EV -5.25%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-18 14:45
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 14:01
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 14:05
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.46%EV -6.78%E -2.94%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.39%EV -8.42%E -2.65%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 01:14
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -13.64%E -6.37%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:19
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -13.64%E -6.37%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.20%EV -13.64%E -6.37%K -11.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -14.45%E -6.81%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.43%EV -14.45%E -6.81%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.02%EV -4.38%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.59%EV -7.59%E -3.31%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.18%EV -4.99%E -1.62%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.23%EV -8.42%E -2.65%K -3.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 01:14
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 14:04
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.02%EV -5.57%E -2.38%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.71%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 15:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.02%EV -5.57%E -2.38%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.71%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 15:29
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.02%EV -5.57%E -2.38%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.71%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 15:30
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -9.20%E -4.09%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-17 14:59
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.97%EV -9.20%E -4.09%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -5.92%E -1.94%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.81%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-17 15:05
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -3.96%E -1.66%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-13 09:30
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -3.96%E -1.66%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-17 14:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.77%EV -3.96%E -1.66%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.55%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.68%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-12 19:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -4.36%E -1.84%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 04:04
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.87%EV -4.36%E -1.84%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-14 10:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.07%EV -5.17%E -2.20%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 19:30
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.17%E -2.20%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 19:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.17%E -2.20%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-14 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.17%E -2.20%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-13 09:30
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 15:20
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -7.99%E -3.50%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 14:05
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.76%EV -9.20%E -4.09%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-16 07:56
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 19:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 19:40
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-12 19:41
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 17:34
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -9.20%E -4.09%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-18 01:20
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.22%E -5.10%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -7.46%E -2.49%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-17 00:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -5.17%E -2.20%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.00%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 04:05
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -5.17%E -2.20%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.00%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 04:05
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -5.17%E -2.20%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -9.00%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 10:05
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.51%EV -5.17%E -2.20%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.47%EV -9.00%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 09:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.20%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.35%EV -9.00%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.26%EV -3.15%E -1.31%K -2.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -9.00%E -3.05%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 14:40
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -2.08%E -0.613%K -0.868%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 14:05
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -7.18%E -3.12%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-13 09:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -7.99%E -3.50%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.32%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-14 10:05
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -9.20%E -4.09%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -10.55%E -3.64%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-13 12:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.67%0.6%2026-09-18 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-09-18 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-09-18 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-09-18 13:30
Matchbook◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.48%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.57%0.9%2026-09-18 08:05