Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leyton Orient v Barnsley

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:00 UTC

Final: Leyton Orient 1–3 Barnsley

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leyton Orient (Local)

Prediction 45.16%2.21fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.31%45.21%45.04%48.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.072.052.1552.63%48.36%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barnsley (Visit)

Prediction 29.64%3.37fair odd
EV +0.775%
Edge +0.228%
Kelly +0.323%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.14%29.57%29.67%31.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.113.103.4034.72%32.15%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.20%3.97fair odd
EV -0.946%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.323%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%25.22%25.29%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.653.703.9329.41%27.39%27.03%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leyton Orient (Local): 45.16%; Barnsley (Visit): 29.64%; Draw: 25.20%. For Barnsley (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.775%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -9.69%E -4.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV +0.775%E +0.228%K +0.323%G +0.003%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 13:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -14.20%E -7.48%K -15.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV +0.775%E +0.228%K +0.323%G +0.003%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -4.22%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 13:55
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.75%EV -6.98%E -3.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.75%EV -0.707%E -0.211%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.50%EV -0.946%E -0.241%K -0.323%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-29 13:55
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.97%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -2.19%E -0.663%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 13:53
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -2.19%E -0.663%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:55
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.59%EV -9.69%E -4.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -2.19%E -0.663%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-29 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -11.95%E -6.13%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -2.19%E -0.663%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -4.22%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 13:55
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -8.79%E -4.35%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -2.19%E -0.663%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 13:55
TAB🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -9.69%E -4.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -2.19%E -0.663%K -0.952%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -11.78%E -3.37%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.87%EV -3.67%E -1.13%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:55
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -8.79%E -4.35%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -3.67%E -1.13%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.30%E -4.21%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -8.79%E -4.35%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -3.67%E -1.13%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.30%E -4.21%K -5.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.95%EV -8.33%E -4.11%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -4.56%E -1.42%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.08%EV -6.24%E -1.68%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 13:55
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.15%E -1.61%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.22%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.54%EV -6.98%E -3.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -6.63%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -4.22%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.54%EV -6.98%E -3.39%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -6.63%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -4.22%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.35%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -6.63%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 13:55
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.35%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -6.63%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 13:55
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.35%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -6.63%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 13:55
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%EV -6.08%E -2.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.50%EV -6.63%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 13:45
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.24%EV -8.79%E -4.35%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -6.63%E -2.11%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 13:55
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.48%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 13:15
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.48%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 13:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 13:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 13:15
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.00%EV -4.27%E -2.01%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 13:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 13:45
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -9.69%E -4.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -4.22%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-29 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:45
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:54
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:55
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:55
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.12%E -2.62%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-29 13:50
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:45
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:45
betPARX🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -2.92%E -1.36%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 13:45
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.74%E -1.82%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 13:15
Bet Right🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 13:15
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -7.43%E -3.62%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -9.26%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%EV -5.17%E -2.46%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -11.08%E -3.69%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -13.04%E -3.78%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 13:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%EV -6.08%E -2.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -14.04%E -4.84%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:45
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%EV -6.08%E -2.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -14.04%E -4.84%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%EV -6.08%E -2.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -14.04%E -4.84%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:45
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.42%EV -6.08%E -2.92%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.14%EV -14.04%E -4.84%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 13:45
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%EV -9.69%E -4.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.02%EV -14.04%E -4.84%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -5.48%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-29 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.44%EV -6.53%E -3.15%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -14.64%E -5.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 13:45
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.44%EV -6.53%E -3.15%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.22%EV -14.64%E -5.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -10.52%E -2.96%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-29 13:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.28%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.14%0.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Matchbook2.10I 47.62%NM 47.28%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.58%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.14%0.7%2026-08-29 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.10I 47.62%NM 47.10%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.86%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.04%1.1%2026-08-29 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.52%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.02%1.2%2026-08-29 13:55
Smarkets2.12I 47.17%NM 45.89%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.48%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.63%2.8%2026-08-29 13:55