Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Leicester City v Plymouth Argyle

2026-09-01 18:45 UTC — League 1

Resultado del partido

26 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Leicester City (Local)

Predicción 49.58%2.02momio equitativo
EV +4.13%
Ventaja +1.97%
Kelly +3.75%
Crecimiento +0.155%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
44.72%48.90%49.56%50.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.881.852.1055.56%53.20%53.91%47.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Plymouth Argyle (Visitante)

Predicción 25.13%3.98momio equitativo
EV -3.49%
Ventaja -0.909%
Kelly -1.23%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.84

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.97%25.54%25.14%28.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.663.733.8430.30%27.30%26.85%26.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.28%3.96momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.359%
Kelly -0.483%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.03%25.56%25.30%27.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.643.653.9029.41%27.46%27.40%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Leicester City (Local): 49.58%; Plymouth Argyle (Visitante): 25.13%; Empate: 25.28%. Para Leicester City (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.02. 2 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.10, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.13%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (26 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV +4.13%E +1.97%K +3.75%G +0.155%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -17.06%E -5.17%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -11.51%E -3.29%K -4.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV +1.65%E +0.804%K +1.57%G +0.026%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -17.06%E -5.17%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -14.04%E -4.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.00%EV -1.82%E -0.920%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -17.06%E -5.17%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -12.78%E -3.70%K -5.21%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 19:39
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 19:45
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.67%EV -5.79%E -3.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 16:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.10%EV -6.78%E -3.61%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.12%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 16:55
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.85%EV -6.78%E -3.61%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.47%EV -3.74%E -0.977%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.68%EV -7.72%E -2.12%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 19:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -7.28%E -3.89%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -1.40%E -0.359%K -0.483%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 18:45
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.07%EV -7.28%E -3.89%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 16:55
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.07%EV -7.28%E -3.89%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.77%EV -5.00%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.17%EV -5.95%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 19:55
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -7.28%E -3.89%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.46%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 19:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -7.28%E -3.89%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.15%EV -7.77%E -4.18%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -3.49%E -0.909%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -7.72%E -2.12%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 19:45
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.01%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.40%E -0.359%K -0.483%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-29 17:05
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.01%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -3.93%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 16:59
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -6.46%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 17:05
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -7.01%E -1.89%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 19:44
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -11.51%E -3.29%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 17:45
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 19:48
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-29 19:48
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -14.04%E -4.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -14.04%E -4.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.27%E -4.47%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -14.04%E -4.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 17:45
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -9.26%E -5.06%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-29 17:49
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -9.26%E -5.06%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -5.19%E -1.38%K -1.89%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 18:50
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -10.75%E -5.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -8.98%E -2.50%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-29 19:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.22%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%9.3%2026-08-29 20:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 46.22%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%9.3%2026-08-29 20:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.47%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%9.8%2026-08-29 20:00
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 45.89%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.85%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%11.2%2026-08-29 19:50
Matchbook1.88I 53.19%NM 47.19%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.16%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%12.7%2026-08-29 20:00
Arbitraje (29 combinaciones) +0.70%Unibet (UK) 2.10 (48.0%) / Marathon Bet 3.84 (26.2%) / SportsBet 3.90 (25.8%)Ver las 29 combinaciones
Leicester City (Local)Plymouth Argyle (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Marathon Bet🎯 3.84 (26.2%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.703%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (48.0%)Marathon Bet🎯 3.84 (26.2%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.703%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.9%)1xBet🎯 3.83 (26.3%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.634%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.9%)1xBet🎯 3.83 (26.3%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.634%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)DraftKings🎯 3.80 (26.4%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)DraftKings🎯 3.80 (26.4%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)Fanatics🎯 3.80 (26.4%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)Fanatics🎯 3.80 (26.4%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)William Hill🎯 3.80 (26.4%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)William Hill🎯 3.80 (26.4%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)888sport🎯 3.80 (26.4%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)888sport🎯 3.80 (26.4%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)888sport (SE)🎯 3.80 (26.4%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)888sport (SE)🎯 3.80 (26.4%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)Mr Green (SE)🎯 3.80 (26.4%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)Mr Green (SE)🎯 3.80 (26.4%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.8%)+0.426%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)Pinnacle🎯 3.78 (26.5%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.286%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.8%)Pinnacle🎯 3.78 (26.5%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.286%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.7%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.073%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.7%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.073%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.7%)betfred_uk🎯 3.75 (26.7%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.073%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.7%)betfred_uk🎯 3.75 (26.7%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.073%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.7%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.073%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.7%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.75 (26.7%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.073%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.7%)Coolbet🎯 3.75 (26.7%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.073%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.7%)Coolbet🎯 3.75 (26.7%)SportsBet🎯 3.90 (25.7%)+0.073%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.6%)Marathon Bet🎯 3.84 (26.0%)Betr (AU)🎯 3.80 (26.3%)+0.024%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.6%)Marathon Bet🎯 3.84 (26.0%)Betway🎯 3.80 (26.3%)+0.024%
Unibet (UK)🎯 2.10 (47.6%)Marathon Bet🎯 3.84 (26.0%)Paddy Power🎯 3.80 (26.3%)+0.024%