Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Exeter City v Lincoln City

Inicio: 2026-03-10 19:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

52 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Exeter City (Local)

Predicción 20.56%4.86momio equitativo
EV -1.31%
Ventaja -0.272%
Kelly -0.344%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.58%20.52%20.57%21.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.254.524.504.8023.53%22.13%22.22%20.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Lincoln City (Visitante)

Predicción 54.72%1.83momio equitativo
EV -4.78%
Ventaja -2.75%
Kelly -6.46%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.74

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.86%54.76%54.69%56.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7461.73%58.80%58.82%57.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.71%4.05momio equitativo
EV +3.80%
Ventaja +0.905%
Kelly +1.19%
Crecimiento +0.045%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.37%24.71%24.74%26.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.743.704.2030.30%26.75%27.03%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Exeter City (Local): 20.56%; Lincoln City (Visitante): 54.72%; Empate: 24.71%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.05. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.20, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.80%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (52 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -9.53%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.27%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV +3.80%E +0.905%K +1.19%G +0.045%6.4%2026-03-10 19:35
1xBet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV -10.97%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.02%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -1.14%E -0.286%K -0.381%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-10 19:35
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -1.14%E -0.286%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-10 18:50
SportsBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.06%EV -9.16%E -5.52%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -1.14%E -0.286%K -0.381%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-10 18:50
Pinnacle🎯4.72I 21.19%NM 20.35%EV -2.95%E -0.625%K -0.793%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.21%EV -4.78%E -2.75%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.44%EV -2.87%E -0.731%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-10 19:30
LowVig.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.32%EV -3.36%E -0.715%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -5.33%E -3.08%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.49%EV -3.61%E -0.927%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-10 19:20
BetOnline.ag🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.32%EV -3.36%E -0.715%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.20%EV -5.33%E -3.08%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.49%EV -3.61%E -0.927%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-10 19:19
Unibet (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -3.61%E -0.927%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-10 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -3.36%E -0.715%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.82%EV -11.35%E -7.00%K -18.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -3.61%E -0.927%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.21%EV -7.52%E -4.45%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.05%EV -4.11%E -1.06%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-10 19:20
DraftKings🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.39%EV -4.78%E -2.75%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -4.85%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-10 19:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -5.33%E -3.08%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 19:20
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -5.33%E -3.08%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 19:20
BetUS🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.53%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.83%EV -8.06%E -4.80%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:40
BoyleSports🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.13%EV -10.97%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -6.09%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-10 18:55
Bet Victor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -1.31%E -0.272%K -0.344%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.33%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-10 19:39
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -2.33%E -0.491%K -0.622%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-10 19:15
Betr (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-10 19:15
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.76%EV -7.52%E -4.45%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-10 19:20
Bovada🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -9.53%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -8.06%E -4.80%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-10 19:28
Codere (IT)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -11.59%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.53%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -7.32%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-10 18:40
LeoVegas🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.36%E -0.715%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.48%EV -5.33%E -3.08%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-10 19:10
ATG (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.36%E -0.715%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.48%EV -5.33%E -3.08%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-10 19:10
Svenska Spel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -3.36%E -0.715%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.48%EV -5.33%E -3.08%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-10 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.87%E -3.42%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-10 19:20
Neds🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -5.87%E -3.42%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-10 19:20
NordicBet🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.50%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -5.87%E -3.42%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:20
Betsson🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 20.88%EV -8.50%E -1.91%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -5.87%E -3.42%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-10 19:15
PlayUp🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -10.56%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -5.87%E -3.42%K -8.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.99%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-10 19:20
888sport🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.53%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:20
William Hill🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.53%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:15
888sport (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.53%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -9.53%E -2.17%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:20
theScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:15
TAB🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 21.51%EV -12.61%E -2.97%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.78%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.71%EV -8.56%E -2.31%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-10 19:25
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.34%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:10
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.34%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:10
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.34%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:10
Unibet (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.34%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:10
Unibet (NL)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.34%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:10
TABtouch🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.34%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:10
betPARX🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.34%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 19:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.49%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-10 19:05
BetRivers🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -5.42%E -1.18%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.49%EV -6.97%E -4.10%K -9.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-10 19:05
Bet Right🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.54%EV -8.06%E -4.80%K -11.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-10 19:15
Everygame🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.92%EV -10.97%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82%EV -9.79%E -2.68%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-10 19:19
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -6.42%E -3.76%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -11.03%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-10 19:25
Betway🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.25%EV -10.97%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.19%EV -5.33%E -3.08%K -7.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -11.03%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-10 19:20
LiveScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.30%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -12.26%E -3.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-10 19:10
Virgin Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -7.47%E -1.66%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.30%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -12.26%E -3.45%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-10 19:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -10.97%E -2.53%K -3.29%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.86%EV -8.61%E -5.16%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.75%EV -18.44%E -5.59%K -8.02%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-10 19:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%0.4%2026-03-10 19:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%0.4%2026-03-10 19:40
Matchbook4.90I 20.41%NM 20.33%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.72%0.4%2026-03-10 19:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-03-10 19:35
Smarkets4.80I 20.83%NM 20.35%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.83%2.4%2026-03-10 19:40