Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion v Stevenage

Inicio: 2026-08-15 14:00 UTC

Final: Burton Albion 1–1 Stevenage

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion (Local)

Predicción 32.82%3.05momio equitativo
EV -0.223%
Ventaja -0.073%
Kelly -0.109%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.04

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.39%32.96%32.76%35.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.792.803.0438.46%35.87%35.71%32.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Stevenage (Visitante)

Predicción 36.56%2.74momio equitativo
EV -3.11%
Ventaja -1.17%
Kelly -1.88%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.88%36.43%36.69%37.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.452.562.552.6540.82%39.07%39.22%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.62%3.27momio equitativo
EV -0.499%
Ventaja -0.153%
Kelly -0.222%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.90%30.61%30.55%31.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.033.003.2535.71%33.04%33.33%30.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Burton Albion (Local): 32.82%; Stevenage (Visitante): 36.56%; Empate: 30.62%. Para Burton Albion (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.05. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.04, con un valor esperado de -0.223%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.68%EV -0.223%E -0.073%K -0.109%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.75%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.57%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-15 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -1.54%E -0.512%K -0.768%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79%EV -6.40%E -2.50%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.82%EV -9.38%E -3.17%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.39%EV -1.54%E -0.512%K -0.768%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.79%EV -6.40%E -2.50%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.82%EV -9.38%E -3.17%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.81%EV -3.83%E -1.31%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.27%EV -6.03%E -2.35%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.92%EV -10.60%E -3.63%K -5.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 13:49
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -4.82%E -1.66%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.94%EV -3.11%E -1.17%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.22%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 13:45
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -4.82%E -1.66%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 13:44
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -5.47%E -1.90%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.76%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:52
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.70%EV -5.47%E -1.90%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -6.76%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 13:53
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -6.46%E -2.27%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.80%EV -6.76%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 13:54
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -6.46%E -2.27%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.71%EV -7.86%E -3.12%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 13:44
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -6.46%E -2.27%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.71%EV -7.86%E -3.12%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 13:45
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -6.46%E -2.27%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 13:55
PlayUp🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -6.46%E -2.27%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 13:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -6.46%E -2.27%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 13:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -0.499%E -0.153%K -0.222%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 13:45
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.56%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -0.499%E -0.153%K -0.222%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 13:45
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.60%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 13:44
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 13:45
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:44
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:44
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.18%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.33%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.49%EV -9.68%E -3.28%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.13%EV -3.84%E -1.46%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.86%EV -11.21%E -3.87%K -5.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 13:49
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 13:54
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 13:55
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.10%E -2.89%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -10.42%E -4.25%K -7.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 13:53
1xBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.79%EV -9.08%E -3.28%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.14%EV -7.86%E -3.12%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.07%EV -1.42%E -0.440%K -0.638%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-15 13:49
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.08%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.54%EV -2.03%E -0.634%K -0.923%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 13:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.65%EV -3.11%E -1.17%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.99%EV -3.56%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 13:45
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:45
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -2.03%E -0.634%K -0.923%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:45
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -2.03%E -0.634%K -0.923%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -2.03%E -0.634%K -0.923%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-15 13:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.10%EV -9.74%E -3.54%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.56%EV -8.96%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 13:54
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -11.38%E -4.22%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.86%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -3.56%E -1.13%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 13:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -11.38%E -4.22%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 13:45
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -11.38%E -4.22%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -6.76%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 13:45
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -11.38%E -4.22%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -6.76%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -6.62%E -2.17%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 13:45
BetRivers🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.26%EV -11.38%E -4.22%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -6.76%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -12.75%E -4.47%K -6.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 13:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.26%EV -11.38%E -4.22%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -6.76%E -2.65%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.51%EV -12.75%E -4.47%K -6.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 13:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -13.02%E -4.91%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -14.28%E -5.10%K -7.93%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 13:44
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -13.02%E -4.91%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.26%EV -8.59%E -3.44%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -14.28%E -5.10%K -7.93%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 13:44
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -14.66%E -5.64%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -4.21%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 12:09
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -14.66%E -5.64%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:48
BetUS🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -14.66%E -5.64%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -5.09%E -1.64%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 13:54
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -14.66%E -5.64%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.88%EV -4.94%E -1.90%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -8.15%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 13:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.83%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.33%1.3%2026-08-15 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.75%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%1.6%2026-08-15 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.75%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%1.6%2026-08-15 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 31.75%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%1.6%2026-08-15 13:50
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.10%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.81%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.08%2.1%2026-08-15 13:55