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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Burton Albion v Mansfield Town

Inicio: 2026-09-19 11:30 UTC

Final: Burton Albion 2–2 Mansfield Town

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Burton Albion (Local)

Predicción 39.94%2.50momio equitativo
EV -2.15%
Ventaja -0.876%
Kelly -1.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.02%39.94%39.89%41.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.352.352.4544.44%42.58%42.55%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Mansfield Town (Visitante)

Predicción 32.25%3.10momio equitativo
EV -3.24%
Ventaja -1.08%
Kelly -1.62%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.20%32.25%32.33%35.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.652.842.853.0037.74%35.20%35.09%33.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.81%3.60momio equitativo
EV +0.100%
Ventaja +0.028%
Kelly +0.039%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.74%27.81%27.77%29.27%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.353.353.6032.26%29.89%29.85%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Burton Albion (Local): 39.94%; Mansfield Town (Visitante): 32.25%; Empate: 27.81%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.596. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.600, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.100%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -12.91%E -4.78%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV +0.100%E +0.028%K +0.039%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-16 11:31
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -10.13%E -4.50%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV +0.100%E +0.028%K +0.039%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 12:50
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -2.68%E -0.766%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 12:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -2.68%E -0.766%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 12:50
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.52%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -2.68%E -0.766%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-18 12:49
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -2.68%E -0.766%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 12:48
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -2.68%E -0.766%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 12:50
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.24%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 12:49
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.24%E -1.08%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 12:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 12:25
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.64%EV -5.34%E -2.25%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.73%EV -7.43%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 12:40
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.64%EV -5.34%E -2.25%K -3.90%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.73%EV -7.43%E -2.59%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 12:40
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.15%E -0.876%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 12:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 12:50
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 12:50
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -10.13%E -4.50%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -5.46%E -1.61%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 12:50
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.26%EV -2.54%E -1.04%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.48%EV -4.85%E -1.64%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.26%EV -5.74%E -1.69%K -2.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 13:25
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.41%EV -7.11%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -6.85%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-18 12:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -6.85%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 12:40
Neds🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -6.85%E -2.05%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 12:40
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.13%EV -6.94%E -2.98%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.70%EV -4.85%E -1.64%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.17%EV -7.69%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.30%EV -7.74%E -3.35%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.66%EV -5.17%E -1.76%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.04%EV -7.69%E -2.31%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-18 15:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.84%EV -4.53%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 15:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.84%EV -4.53%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 15:04
BetUS🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.60%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.84%EV -4.53%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.56%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 15:04
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.95%EV -7.34%E -3.16%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 12:35
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.95%EV -7.34%E -3.16%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 12:39
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 12:25
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-18 12:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.91%EV -10.13%E -4.50%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.20%EV -4.85%E -1.64%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-18 12:20
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.08%E -2.83%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.24%E -2.50%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 12:45
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 12:47
TAB🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 12:19
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.64%EV -8.54%E -3.73%K -6.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -9.69%E -3.46%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:30
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -14.53%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 14:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -14.53%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 14:20
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -4.94%E -2.08%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -14.53%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-12 14:19
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -11.30%E -4.11%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 12:25
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -14.53%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.32%EV -6.14%E -2.61%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.98%EV -14.53%E -5.48%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -9.63%E -2.96%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 14:20
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.80%E -4.45%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.80%E -4.45%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.80%E -4.45%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:44
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -8.14%E -3.54%K -6.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.46%E -2.23%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -13.80%E -4.45%K -6.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-18 12:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.06%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.15%1.5%2026-09-18 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.01%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%2.4%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.69%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.01%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.30%2.4%2026-09-18 15:30
Smarkets◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.64%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.50%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.86%2.6%2026-09-18 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 39.48%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.15%3.0%2026-09-18 15:30