Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barnsley v Stockport County FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 14:00 UTC

Final: Barnsley 1–3 Stockport County FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

53 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Barnsley (Local)

Prediction 24.67%4.05fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.283%
Kelly +0.374%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.98%24.59%24.79%26.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.754.1028.57%26.70%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stockport County FC (Visit)

Prediction 52.36%1.91fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.92%52.39%52.24%53.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.781.8559.88%56.36%56.18%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.97%4.35fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.373%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.67%23.02%22.97%24.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.054.004.3028.57%24.68%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Barnsley (Local): 24.67%; Stockport County FC (Visit): 52.36%; Draw: 22.97%. For Barnsley (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV +1.16%E +0.283%K +0.374%G +0.004%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.63%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.21%EV -6.05%E -1.48%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 13:50
Fanatics🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -1.31%E -0.327%K -0.436%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 13:50
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -1.31%E -0.327%K -0.436%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.37%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 13:46
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -1.31%E -0.327%K -0.436%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.37%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -1.31%E -0.327%K -0.436%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.63%EV -8.90%E -5.11%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -6.97%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -1.31%E -0.327%K -0.436%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -9.95%E -5.78%K -13.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 13:45
1xBet🎯3.97I 25.19%NM 23.61%EV -2.05%E -0.516%K -0.690%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.25%EV -7.85%E -4.46%K -10.33%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.14%EV -6.97%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 13:45
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -2.54%E -0.643%K -0.862%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -8.37%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.27%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 13:45
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -2.54%E -0.643%K -0.862%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -8.37%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.27%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 13:45
Bet Victor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -3.78%E -0.968%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.61%EV -8.37%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-02 13:50
TAB🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -3.78%E -0.968%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -8.37%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-02 13:45
Everygame🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -3.78%E -0.968%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.26%EV -10.99%E -6.47%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -11.57%E -3.00%K -4.06%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 13:45
DraftKings🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -5.01%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -5.01%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.43%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 13:55
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -5.01%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.10%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -11.57%E -3.00%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-02 13:45
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -8.37%E -4.79%K -11.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 13:45
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -12.72%E -3.35%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 13:50
BetUS🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.39%EV -7.85%E -4.46%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -9.27%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 13:55
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.39%EV -7.85%E -4.46%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -9.27%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 13:53
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -13.86%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -13.86%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -6.24%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -13.86%E -3.70%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-02 13:45
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.48%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -3.14%E -1.70%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 13:45
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.48%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 13:55
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -7.48%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -7.48%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.11%EV -3.66%E -1.99%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -9.27%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 13:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.16%EV -7.48%E -1.99%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.02%EV -12.56%E -7.52%K -18.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -19.61%E -5.60%K -7.84%G +0.000%15.1%2026-05-02 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -8.71%E -2.35%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -4.19%E -2.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-02 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.71%E -2.35%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -4.71%E -2.59%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 13:45
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.71%E -2.35%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.36%EV -4.71%E -2.59%K -5.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 13:46
BetMGM🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -8.71%E -2.35%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -4.19%E -2.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -10.42%E -2.67%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 13:45
LeoVegas🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -9.94%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -1.23%E -0.286%K -0.373%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:30
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -9.94%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -1.23%E -0.286%K -0.373%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -9.94%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.90%EV -1.23%E -0.286%K -0.373%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 13:30
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 13:50
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.85%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 13:30
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 13:31
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 13:31
Unibet (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 13:30
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 13:30
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 13:30
betPARX🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 13:31
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 13:30
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -2.38%E -0.560%K -0.732%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 13:31
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -5.76%E -3.20%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 13:55
Betway🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 13:43
theScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -7.33%E -4.14%K -9.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-02 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.69%EV -7.85%E -4.46%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -9.27%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 13:56
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -11.18%E -3.10%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -12.56%E -7.52%K -18.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -8.12%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-02 13:50
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -12.41%E -3.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.66%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -5.82%E -1.42%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-02 13:55
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -8.90%E -5.11%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 13:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.01%EV -13.64%E -3.90%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.32%EV -8.90%E -5.11%K -12.02%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.67%EV -3.53%E -0.840%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-02 13:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook4.30I 23.26%NM 22.86%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.41%1.7%2026-05-02 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.34%2.0%2026-05-02 13:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.34%2.0%2026-05-02 13:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.86%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.34%2.0%2026-05-02 13:50
Smarkets4.10I 24.39%NM 23.58%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.41%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.02%3.4%2026-05-02 13:55