The School of Odds
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Sheffield Wednesday v Bolton Wanderers

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 14:00 UTC

Final: Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 Bolton Wanderers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

47 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sheffield Wednesday (Local)

Prediction 29.39%3.40fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -0.909%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.46%29.42%29.42%31.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.943.133.103.3034.01%31.99%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bolton Wanderers (Visit)

Prediction 44.36%2.25fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.80%44.32%44.35%45.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.092.102.1750.25%47.83%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.25%3.81fair odd
EV +0.014%
Edge +0.004%
Kelly +0.005%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.51%26.27%26.23%27.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.453.8130.77%28.81%28.99%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sheffield Wednesday (Local): 29.39%; Bolton Wanderers (Visit): 44.36%; Draw: 26.25%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.809. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.810, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.014%.

Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.02%EV -11.52%E -3.83%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.51%EV +0.014%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:53
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -1.56%E -0.416%K -0.568%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-06 06:54
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.36%EV -7.74%E -3.72%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -1.56%E -0.416%K -0.568%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 06:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -2.87%E -0.777%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -10.35%E -3.39%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -11.29%E -5.64%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -4.19%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:25
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 13:34
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 13:34
betano_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -4.47%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 13:54
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -4.47%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 13:55
theScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:24
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -4.47%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 15:45
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -11.29%E -5.64%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:54
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.49%EV -5.06%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -3.75%E -1.73%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.61%EV -6.02%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -11.29%E -5.64%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -6.81%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 13:24
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -6.53%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.19%EV -6.41%E -3.04%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -7.60%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 13:34
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:34
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:35
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:34
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 13:35
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -4.47%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -9.44%E -2.74%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 30.87%EV -13.58%E -4.62%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -9.44%E -2.74%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 30.87%EV -13.58%E -4.62%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -9.44%E -2.74%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 13:55
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:35
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:35
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 13:44
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.47%EV -11.73%E -5.90%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-08 13:40
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:34
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:34
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 13:34
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 13:44
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 13:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 13:34
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -14.69%E -4.52%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-08 13:55
Matchbook◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-08 13:55

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