Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sheffield Wednesday v Bolton Wanderers

Inicio: 2026-08-08 14:00 UTC

Final: Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 Bolton Wanderers

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

47 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Sheffield Wednesday (Local)

Predicción 29.39%3.40momio equitativo
EV -3.00%
Ventaja -0.909%
Kelly -1.30%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.46%29.42%29.42%31.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.943.133.103.3034.01%31.99%32.26%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bolton Wanderers (Visitante)

Predicción 44.36%2.25momio equitativo
EV -3.75%
Ventaja -1.73%
Kelly -3.20%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.80%44.32%44.35%45.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.992.092.102.1750.25%47.83%47.62%46.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.25%3.81momio equitativo
EV +0.014%
Ventaja +0.004%
Kelly +0.005%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.51%26.27%26.23%27.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.473.453.8130.77%28.81%28.99%26.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sheffield Wednesday (Local): 29.39%; Bolton Wanderers (Visitante): 44.36%; Empate: 26.25%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.809. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.810, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.014%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (47 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.02%EV -11.52%E -3.83%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.47%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.51%EV +0.014%E +0.004%K +0.005%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:53
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -1.56%E -0.416%K -0.568%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-06 06:54
Coolbet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.36%EV -7.74%E -3.72%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -1.56%E -0.416%K -0.568%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 06:29
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -2.87%E -0.777%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:25
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -10.35%E -3.39%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -11.29%E -5.64%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.86%EV -4.19%E -1.15%K -1.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:25
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 13:34
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-08 13:34
betano_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -4.47%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 13:54
Bet Victor🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -4.47%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 13:55
theScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.41%E -2.35%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:24
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -4.47%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 15:45
Bovada🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -11.29%E -5.64%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.50%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:54
Pinnacle🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 29.49%EV -5.06%E -1.57%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -3.75%E -1.73%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.61%EV -6.02%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -11.29%E -5.64%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.26%EV -6.81%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-08 13:24
Marathon Bet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.32%EV -6.53%E -2.05%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.19%EV -6.41%E -3.04%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.49%EV -7.60%E -2.16%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 13:34
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:34
Neds🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.00%E -0.909%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 13:35
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:34
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-08 13:35
SportsBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -4.47%E -1.37%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.35%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -9.44%E -2.74%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 30.87%EV -13.58%E -4.62%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -9.44%E -2.74%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.94I 34.01%NM 30.87%EV -13.58%E -4.62%K -7.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -9.44%E -2.74%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:35
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -5.94%E -1.86%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 13:55
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:35
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:35
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.97%E -2.81%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:34
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 13:44
NetBet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.47%EV -11.73%E -5.90%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.03%EV -10.75%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-08 13:40
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:34
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 13:34
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -6.85%E -3.26%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 13:34
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-08 13:44
LiveScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 13:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -11.82%E -3.94%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-08 13:34
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -8.88%E -2.86%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.07%E -4.43%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -14.69%E -4.52%K -6.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-08 13:55
Matchbook3.45I 28.99%NM 28.68%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-08 13:55