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Doncaster Rovers v Middlesbrough

2026-08-25 15:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Doncaster Rovers (Local)

Prediction 21.12%4.73fair odd
EV -0.734%
Edge -0.156%
Kelly -0.198%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.11%21.12%21.12%21.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.404.404.7023.81%22.74%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Middlesbrough (Visit)

Prediction 55.65%1.80fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.73%55.65%55.65%56.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.681.671.7460.61%59.47%59.88%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.23%4.30fair odd
EV -4.75%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.15%23.23%23.23%23.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.994.004.1026.32%25.09%25.00%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Doncaster Rovers (Local): 21.12%; Middlesbrough (Visit): 55.65%; Draw: 23.23%. For Doncaster Rovers (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.73. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.70, with an expected value of -0.734%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -0.734%E -0.156%K -0.198%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.26%EV -6.51%E -3.88%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 11:29
1xBet🎯4.42I 22.62%NM 21.65%EV -6.65%E -1.50%K -1.94%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.00%EV -3.17%E -1.82%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.34%EV -4.75%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-11 11:55
SportsBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -7.07%E -1.61%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -5.96%E -3.52%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-11 11:24
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -7.07%E -1.61%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-11 11:24
Sky Bet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -8.55%E -1.97%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.46%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-11 11:24
Paddy Power🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -8.55%E -1.97%K -2.57%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.46%EV -7.07%E -4.23%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -7.07%E -1.77%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-11 11:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -11.29%E -2.69%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -8.18%E -4.96%K -12.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -11.72%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-11 11:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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