Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Doncaster Rovers v Middlesbrough

Inicio: 2026-08-25 18:30 UTC

Final: Doncaster Rovers 1–3 Middlesbrough

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Doncaster Rovers (Local)

Predicción 14.00%7.14momio equitativo
EV +4.99%
Ventaja +0.665%
Kelly +0.768%
Crecimiento +0.038%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
12.59%14.25%13.98%17.72%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.256.346.227.5019.05%15.78%16.06%13.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Middlesbrough (Visitante)

Predicción 65.75%1.52momio equitativo
EV +0.591%
Ventaja +0.386%
Kelly +1.12%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.53

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.80%65.35%65.73%67.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.361.431.421.5373.53%70.13%70.42%65.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 20.26%4.94momio equitativo
EV +1.28%
Ventaja +0.255%
Kelly +0.319%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.08%20.40%20.29%22.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.054.514.505.0024.69%22.15%22.22%20.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Doncaster Rovers (Local): 14.00%; Middlesbrough (Visitante): 65.75%; Empate: 20.26%. Para Doncaster Rovers (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 7.14. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 7.50, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.99%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Bet Victor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV +4.99%E +0.665%K +0.768%G +0.038%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -2.77%E -0.578%K -0.730%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:13
betano_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV +4.99%E +0.665%K +0.768%G +0.038%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -2.77%E -0.578%K -0.730%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:15
Pinnacle🎯7.44I 13.44%NM 12.86%EV +4.15%E +0.558%K +0.644%G +0.027%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.37%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.77%EV -1.96%E -0.406%K -0.511%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-25 18:24
BetOnline.ag🎯7.35I 13.61%NM 12.95%EV +2.89%E +0.393%K +0.455%G +0.013%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.57%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.92%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -5.81%E -1.25%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯7.35I 13.61%NM 12.95%EV +2.89%E +0.393%K +0.455%G +0.013%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.57%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.92%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -5.81%E -1.25%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 18:19
NordicBet🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.59%EV +2.19%E +0.300%K +0.348%G +0.008%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.72%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.69%EV -17.97%E -4.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-25 18:24
PlayUp🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.77%EV +1.49%E +0.206%K +0.239%G +0.004%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.19%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -14.93%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-25 18:24
Tipico (DE)🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.79%EV +0.791%E +0.110%K +0.128%G +0.001%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.20%EV -9.93%E -7.25%K -26.83%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.82%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-25 18:19
Marathon Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.75%EV -2.01%E -0.287%K -0.335%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.40%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.85%EV -1.76%E -0.363%K -0.457%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-25 18:13
SportsBet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -2.01%E -0.287%K -0.335%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.02%EV -7.30%E -5.18%K -17.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-25 18:14
FanDuel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -2.01%E -0.287%K -0.335%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%EV -9.27%E -6.72%K -24.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-25 18:13
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -2.01%E -0.287%K -0.335%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -10.59%E -7.78%K -29.40%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-25 18:18
Betsson🎯6.80I 14.71%NM 13.46%EV -4.81%E -0.707%K -0.829%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.47%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.06%EV -15.94%E -3.84%K -5.06%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-25 18:14
Betr (AU)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV -5.51%E -0.816%K -0.958%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.36%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.60%EV -6.82%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-25 18:19
Coolbet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -5.51%E -0.816%K -0.958%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-25 18:19
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV +1.28%E +0.255%K +0.319%G +0.004%4.8%2026-08-25 18:24
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.43%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -3.79%E -0.797%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 18:13
BetMGM🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -2.77%E -0.578%K -0.730%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-25 18:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -2.77%E -0.578%K -0.730%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 18:24
Neds🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -2.77%E -0.578%K -0.730%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 18:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -2.77%E -0.578%K -0.730%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 18:24
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -10.59%E -7.78%K -29.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -12.29%E -2.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-25 18:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -9.01%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -10.59%E -7.78%K -29.40%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -12.29%E -2.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-25 18:19
Bovada🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -12.51%E -2.00%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -9.27%E -6.72%K -24.40%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -4.80%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-25 18:24
Sky Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.12%EV -12.51%E -2.00%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.88%EV -10.59%E -7.78%K -29.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.01%EV -14.93%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-25 18:14
NetBet (FR)🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 14.35%EV -13.21%E -2.13%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.43%EV -10.59%E -7.78%K -29.40%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.22%EV -10.88%E -2.47%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-25 18:18
1xBet🎯6.18I 16.18%NM 15.17%EV -13.49%E -2.18%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.10%EV -5.33%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.73%EV -3.79%E -0.797%K -1.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-25 18:24
LeoVegas🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -16.01%E -2.67%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.71%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -6.82%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-25 18:14
theScore Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -16.01%E -2.67%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 64.71%EV -6.64%E -4.68%K -15.81%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -6.82%E -1.48%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-25 18:14
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -16.01%E -2.67%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.29%E -2.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-25 18:14
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -16.01%E -2.67%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.29%E -2.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-25 18:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -16.01%E -2.67%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.29%E -2.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-25 18:14
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.99%EV -16.01%E -2.67%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.24%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.77%EV -12.29%E -2.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-25 18:14
Winamax (DE)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.46%EV -17.41%E -2.95%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.14%EV -7.96%E -5.68%K -19.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -4.80%E -1.02%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-25 18:14
Unibet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:24
TABtouch🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:23
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:23
Grosvenor🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:23
Svenska Spel🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:23
Unibet (NL)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:23
Unibet (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:23
Casumo🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:23
ATG (SE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -18.81%E -3.24%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -2.70%E -1.82%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:23
Winamax (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.71%EV -20.21%E -3.55%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.40%EV -8.61%E -6.20%K -22.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -8.85%E -1.97%K -2.53%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-25 18:14
BetRivers🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -21.61%E -3.86%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.01%EV -1.38%E -0.921%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -11.89%E -2.73%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 18:16
betPARX🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -21.61%E -3.86%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.01%EV -1.38%E -0.921%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -11.89%E -2.73%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 18:19
Virgin Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -23.01%E -4.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -5.18%K -17.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -14.93%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-25 18:24
LiveScore Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -23.01%E -4.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -5.18%K -17.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -14.93%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-25 18:23
PMU (FR)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -23.01%E -4.18%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -5.18%K -17.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -14.93%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-25 18:23
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -26.51%E -5.05%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.80%EV +0.591%E +0.386%K +1.12%G +0.007%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.48%EV -12.29%E -2.84%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-25 18:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%1.48I 67.57%NM 67.25%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-08-25 18:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.40%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22%0.9%2026-08-25 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.40%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22%0.9%2026-08-25 18:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.40%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.22%0.9%2026-08-25 18:19