Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Barnsley v Wigan Athletic

Inicio: 2026-08-08 14:00 UTC

Final: Barnsley 1–1 Wigan Athletic

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Barnsley (Local)

Predicción 38.26%2.61momio equitativo
EV -1.68%
Ventaja -0.653%
Kelly -1.07%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.05%38.22%38.26%39.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.232.392.402.5744.84%41.82%41.67%38.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wigan Athletic (Visitante)

Predicción 34.76%2.88momio equitativo
EV -2.67%
Ventaja -0.954%
Kelly -1.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.53%34.72%34.75%35.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.472.672.682.8040.49%37.49%37.31%35.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.98%3.71momio equitativo
EV -5.56%
Ventaja -1.59%
Kelly -2.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.33%27.06%26.99%28.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.413.423.5030.77%29.29%29.24%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Barnsley (Local): 38.26%; Wigan Athletic (Visitante): 34.76%; Empate: 26.98%. Para Barnsley (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.61. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.57, con un valor esperado de -1.68%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.05%EV -1.68%E -0.653%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -7.19%E -2.69%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.28%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 13:45
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.25%EV -3.97%E -1.58%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.41%EV -8.23%E -3.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.34%EV -7.72%E -2.26%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 13:49
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -4.36%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 13:40
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -4.36%E -1.74%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 13:38
Marathon Bet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.42%EV -4.74%E -1.90%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.57%EV -8.93%E -3.41%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 13:45
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -4.41%E -1.60%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-07 19:55
BetMGM🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -4.41%E -1.60%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 06:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.41%E -1.60%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 06:25
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.41%E -1.60%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 06:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -4.41%E -1.60%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 07:45
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.89%E -2.98%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:39
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -7.89%E -2.98%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:40
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 13:44
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -8.93%E -3.41%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -12.31%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:45
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -8.93%E -3.41%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -12.31%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -8.93%E -3.41%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -12.31%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.19%EV -6.27%E -2.56%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.78%EV -8.93%E -3.41%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -12.31%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:45
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -7.42%E -3.07%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.39%EV -6.84%E -2.55%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 09:45
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -7.42%E -3.07%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 34.39%EV -6.84%E -2.55%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 09:45
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -2.67%E -0.954%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 05:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -2.67%E -0.954%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 07:04
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -4.41%E -1.60%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.96%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 13:44
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -8.93%E -3.41%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -7.89%E -2.98%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:29
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -8.18%E -3.41%K -5.84%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -7.89%E -2.98%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-08 13:34
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.95%E -3.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -9.62%E -3.70%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -10.96%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:39
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.95%E -3.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -9.62%E -3.70%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -10.96%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.25%EV -8.95%E -3.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.47%EV -13.10%E -5.24%K -8.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -12.31%E -3.79%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 13:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.35%EV -9.33%E -3.94%K -6.81%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.83%EV -14.14%E -5.73%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.82%EV -10.96%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-08 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.74%EV -10.10%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.48%EV -8.23%E -3.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.74%EV -10.10%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 34.48%EV -8.23%E -3.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -8.26%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -10.10%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.96%EV -9.62%E -3.70%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 13:44
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.64%EV -10.10%E -4.30%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -7.89%E -2.98%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 13:05
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:50
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:50
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:49
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:49
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.55%EV -10.86%E -4.66%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.15%E -2.28%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.56%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:50
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -11.24%E -4.85%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.53%EV -4.41%E -1.60%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-08 13:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%EV -12.01%E -5.22%K -9.24%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.84%EV -11.36%E -4.46%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-08 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.63%EV -14.69%E -6.59%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.99%EV -9.62%E -3.70%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 13:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.63%EV -14.69%E -6.59%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.99%EV -9.62%E -3.70%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 13:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.63%EV -14.69%E -6.59%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.99%EV -9.62%E -3.70%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -9.61%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 13:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 38.33%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.09%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.60I 38.46%NM 38.33%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.09%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%0.3%2026-08-08 13:55
Matchbook2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.25%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.51%0.6%2026-08-08 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 38.14%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.42%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.44%0.8%2026-08-08 13:45