Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sheffield Wednesday v Watford

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sheffield Wednesday (Local)

Prediction 12.21%8.19fair odd
EV +6.11%
Edge +0.704%
Kelly +0.795%
Growth +0.049%

assuming max odds 8.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.89%12.18%12.28%13.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.597.508.6915.38%13.18%13.33%11.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Watford (Visit)

Prediction 66.91%1.49fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -8.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.55%66.88%66.94%69.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.391.401.4481.97%71.74%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.88%4.79fair odd
EV -0.812%
Edge -0.171%
Kelly -0.217%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.63%20.94%20.78%22.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.444.504.7525.00%22.54%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sheffield Wednesday (Local): 12.21%; Watford (Visit): 66.91%; Draw: 20.88%. For Sheffield Wednesday (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.19. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯8.69I 11.51%NM 11.17%EV +6.11%E +0.704%K +0.795%G +0.049%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.90%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.93%EV -3.11%E -0.670%K -0.854%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-10 19:40
Coolbet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV +3.79%E +0.446%K +0.506%G +0.019%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.12%EV -4.99%E -3.52%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-10 19:25
Bet Victor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV +3.79%E +0.446%K +0.506%G +0.019%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.76%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-10 19:39
Sky Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV +3.79%E +0.446%K +0.506%G +0.019%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.14%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.02%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -0.812%E -0.171%K -0.217%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-10 19:20
SportsBet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +3.79%E +0.446%K +0.506%G +0.019%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.94%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 19:20
Caesars🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV +3.79%E +0.446%K +0.506%G +0.019%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.07%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -12.30%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-10 19:33
Tipico (DE)🎯8.20I 12.20%NM 11.19%EV +0.131%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.96%EV -9.68%E -7.17%K -27.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-10 19:00
BetOnline.ag🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 12.05%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.52%EV -1.86%E -0.395%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-10 19:20
LowVig.ag🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 12.05%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.52%EV -1.86%E -0.395%K -0.502%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-10 19:20
Betr (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.66%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.64%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -10.21%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-10 19:25
Bet Right🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.90%EV -11.25%E -2.65%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-10 19:20
theScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.29%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.10%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-10 19:20
Paddy Power🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.02%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-10 19:20
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -2.31%E -0.289%K -0.330%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.84%EV -10.34%E -7.72%K -30.42%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -1.86%E -0.395%K -0.502%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-10 19:19
Codere (IT)🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.21%EV -4.75%E -0.609%K -0.699%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.08%EV -4.99%E -3.52%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -3.94%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 19:20
Pinnacle🎯7.72I 12.95%NM 12.40%EV -5.73%E -0.742%K -0.853%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.93%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.67%EV -3.32%E -0.717%K -0.914%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-10 19:40
Marathon Bet🎯7.70I 12.99%NM 12.12%EV -5.97%E -0.776%K -0.892%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 67.14%EV -7.00%E -5.04%K -17.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-10 19:20
GTbets🎯7.69I 13.00%NM 12.25%EV -6.10%E -0.793%K -0.911%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.78%EV -5.66%E -4.01%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 20.97%EV -6.24%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-10 19:30
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.76%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.44%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.80%EV -3.94%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-10 19:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.14%EV -3.65%E -2.54%K -8.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.60%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -3.94%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.60%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -3.94%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 18:50
ATG (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.60%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -3.94%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 18:50
BetMGM🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.60%EV -4.32%E -3.02%K -10.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%EV -3.94%E -0.857%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-10 19:25
Unibet (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -4.99%E -3.52%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-10 19:20
Unibet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -5.66%E -4.01%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-10 18:40
Casumo🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -5.66%E -4.01%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-10 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -5.66%E -4.01%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-10 18:40
Unibet (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -5.66%E -4.01%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-10 18:40
Grosvenor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -5.66%E -4.01%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-10 18:40
betPARX🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -5.66%E -4.01%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-10 18:40
Bally Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.61%EV -5.66%E -4.01%K -13.81%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-10 18:40
BetRivers🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 18:40
TABtouch🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 18:40
Fanatics🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 19:30
Everygame🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-10 19:20
TAB🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.64%EV -4.99%E -3.52%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.93%EV -11.25%E -2.65%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-10 19:30
PlayUp🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.96%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -11.25%E -2.65%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-10 19:30
LeoVegas🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-10 18:40
888sport🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.30%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:25
William Hill🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.30%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:25
888sport (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.30%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.30%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 19:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -8.42%E -1.12%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.23%EV -11.01%E -8.28%K -33.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.02%EV -16.47%E -4.12%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-10 19:20
Fliff🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.34%EV -10.86%E -1.49%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.72%EV -9.68%E -7.17%K -27.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.95%EV -10.21%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-10 19:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -11.47%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.85%EV -4.99%E -3.52%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-10 19:25
Neds🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -11.47%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.85%EV -4.99%E -3.52%K -11.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-10 19:25
Betclic (FR)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.53%EV -11.47%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.33%EV -8.34%E -6.09%K -22.53%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -10.21%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-10 19:19
Unibet (FR)🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 12.43%EV -12.08%E -1.68%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.77%EV -10.34%E -7.72%K -30.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.81%EV -10.21%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-10 19:40
Betway🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-10 19:19
Bovada🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-10 19:25
BetUS🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-10 19:30
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.33%E -4.52%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.58%E -2.21%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-10 19:25
LiveScore Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -6.03%E -1.34%K -1.72%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-10 18:50
Virgin Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.19%EV -7.67%E -5.56%K -20.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.76%EV -8.12%E -1.85%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-10 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.42%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 66.88%EV -13.02%E -10.02%K -43.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.70%EV -12.30%E -2.93%K -3.84%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-10 19:24
PMU (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 11.84%EV -14.52%E -2.07%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 67.94%EV -18.37%E -15.06%K -83.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.22%EV -14.39%E -3.51%K -4.64%G +0.000%20.6%2026-03-10 19:20
Winamax (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.72%EV -20.63%E -3.17%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.55%EV -9.01%E -6.62%K -25.02%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.73%EV -10.21%E -2.37%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-10 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)9.20I 10.87%NM 10.84%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.23%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%0.3%2026-03-10 19:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)9.20I 10.87%NM 10.84%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.23%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%0.3%2026-03-10 19:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)9.20I 10.87%NM 10.84%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.23%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%0.3%2026-03-10 19:35
Matchbook9.20I 10.87%NM 10.84%1.44I 69.44%NM 69.23%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.94%0.3%2026-03-10 19:35
Kalshi9.09I 11.00%NM 10.90%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.28%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%0.9%2026-03-10 19:30
Smarkets9.20I 10.87%NM 10.74%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.10%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.16%1.2%2026-03-10 19:35