Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norwich City v Bolton Wanderers

2026-09-20 12:30 UTC — Championship

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Norwich City (Local)

Prediction 58.63%1.71fair odd
EV -0.910%
Edge -0.538%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.50%59.24%58.17%65.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.581.611.6971.43%63.44%62.11%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bolton Wanderers (Visit)

Prediction 18.84%5.31fair odd
EV +22.46%
Edge +3.45%
Kelly +4.08%
Growth +0.917%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.40%18.53%19.33%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.904.906.5025.64%20.42%20.41%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.53%4.44fair odd
EV +7.01%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.87%
Growth +0.131%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.70%22.23%22.50%23.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.074.064.7528.17%24.56%24.63%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Norwich City (Local): 58.63%; Bolton Wanderers (Visit): 18.84%; Draw: 22.53%. For Bolton Wanderers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.31. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.50, producing a positive expected value of +22.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -16.74%E -11.79%K -39.86%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +22.46%E +3.45%K +4.08%G +0.917%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV +7.01%E +1.47%K +1.87%G +0.131%6.9%2026-09-12 19:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -12.05%E -8.03%K -24.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV +13.04%E +2.17%K +2.61%G +0.340%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.26%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 19:35
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.85%EV -12.05%E -8.03%K -24.10%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV +5.50%E +0.982%K +1.20%G +0.066%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -3.13%E -0.728%K -0.949%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 19:35
ReBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.67%EV -14.98%E -10.33%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.97%EV +5.50%E +0.982%K +1.20%G +0.066%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-12 19:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.97%EV -14.98%E -10.33%K -33.29%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.64%EV +1.73%E +0.321%K +0.394%G +0.007%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.39%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-12 19:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 61.10%EV -16.74%E -11.79%K -39.86%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.37%EV -0.152%E -0.029%K -0.035%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.53%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-12 19:35
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -5.01%E -3.10%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -5.80%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 19:35
NordicBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.56%EV -3.84%E -2.34%K -6.00%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.19%EV -7.31%E -1.49%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.25%EV -8.54%E -2.10%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 19:40
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.01%E -3.10%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.36%EV -7.69%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -3.13%E -0.728%K -0.949%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-12 19:35
Bet Right🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -5.01%E -3.10%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -7.69%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 19:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -5.01%E -3.10%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -7.69%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 19:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 60.63%EV -17.91%E -12.80%K -44.78%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.32%EV -7.69%E -1.57%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.05%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-12 19:35
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.79%EV -6.77%E -4.26%K -11.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -9.57%E -1.99%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -3.13%E -0.728%K -0.949%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-12 19:36
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -6.19%E -3.87%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -10.51%E -2.21%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.38%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 19:35
Betsson🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.39%EV +0.263%E +0.154%K +0.370%G +0.001%4.69I 21.32%NM 20.20%EV -11.64%E -2.48%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.41%EV -12.59%E -3.25%K -4.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-12 19:30
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.71%EV -6.19%E -3.87%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -13.34%E -2.90%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.57%EV -13.27%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 19:40
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -7.95%E -5.06%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -15.22%E -3.38%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -9.89%E -2.47%K -3.30%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-12 19:34
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.32%EV -2.08%E -1.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -17.11%E -3.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 19:39
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.32%EV -2.08%E -1.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -17.11%E -3.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.32%EV -2.08%E -1.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -17.11%E -3.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 19:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.32%EV -2.08%E -1.25%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -17.11%E -3.89%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-12 19:40
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.47%EV -0.910%E -0.538%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.55%EV -18.05%E -4.15%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 22.98%EV -8.09%E -1.98%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-12 19:35
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -0.910%E -0.538%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 21.88%EV -20.69%E -4.91%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -12.14%E -3.11%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 19:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 55.17%EV -11.46%E -7.59%K -22.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.36%EV -26.53%E -6.80%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.47%EV -20.03%E -5.64%K -7.85%G +0.000%20.0%2026-09-12 19:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 60.89%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.59%16.5%2026-09-12 19:35
Arbitrage (169 combinations) +4.59%1xBet 1.69 (61.9%) / Fanatics 6.50 (16.1%) / Fanatics 4.75 (22.0%)Show all 169 combinations
Norwich City (Local)Bolton Wanderers (Visit)DrawMargin
Betsson🎯 1.71 (61.6%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (16.2%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (22.2%)+5.36%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (61.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (16.1%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (22.0%)+4.59%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (61.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (16.1%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (22.0%)+4.59%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (60.8%)Unibet (UK)🎯 6.00 (17.3%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.9%)+3.95%
William Hill🎯 1.67 (62.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (16.0%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.9%)+3.82%
888sport🎯 1.67 (62.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (16.0%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.9%)+3.82%
Mr Green (SE)🎯 1.67 (62.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (16.0%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.9%)+3.82%
888sport (SE)🎯 1.67 (62.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (16.0%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.9%)+3.82%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (61.1%)Unibet (UK)🎯 6.00 (17.2%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.7%)+3.21%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (61.1%)Unibet (UK)🎯 6.00 (17.2%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.7%)+3.21%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)SportsBet🎯 4.30 (23.9%)+2.97%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)FanDuel🎯 4.30 (23.9%)+2.97%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)LeoVegas🎯 4.30 (23.9%)+2.97%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (60.0%)LeoVegas🎯 5.60 (18.3%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.6%)+2.68%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (60.0%)ReBet🎯 5.60 (18.3%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.6%)+2.68%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (60.0%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)Unibet (UK)🎯 4.25 (24.2%)+2.68%
NordicBet🎯 1.64 (62.6%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.6%)+2.66%
William Hill🎯 1.67 (61.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 6.00 (17.1%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.6%)+2.46%
888sport🎯 1.67 (61.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 6.00 (17.1%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.6%)+2.46%
Mr Green (SE)🎯 1.67 (61.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 6.00 (17.1%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.6%)+2.46%
888sport (SE)🎯 1.67 (61.4%)Unibet (UK)🎯 6.00 (17.1%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.6%)+2.46%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (59.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)betfred_uk🎯 4.20 (24.4%)+2.38%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (59.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)Bet Right🎯 4.20 (24.4%)+2.38%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (59.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)Betr (AU)🎯 4.20 (24.4%)+2.38%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (59.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)Sky Bet🎯 4.20 (24.4%)+2.38%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (59.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.8%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.20 (24.4%)+2.38%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.5%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)SportsBet🎯 4.30 (23.8%)+2.24%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.5%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)FanDuel🎯 4.30 (23.8%)+2.24%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.5%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)LeoVegas🎯 4.30 (23.8%)+2.24%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (60.5%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)SportsBet🎯 4.30 (23.8%)+2.24%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (60.5%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)FanDuel🎯 4.30 (23.8%)+2.24%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (60.5%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)LeoVegas🎯 4.30 (23.8%)+2.24%
Betsson🎯 1.71 (59.6%)Winamax (DE)🎯 5.40 (18.9%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.5%)+1.99%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.3%)LeoVegas🎯 5.60 (18.2%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.5%)+1.96%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.3%)ReBet🎯 5.60 (18.2%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.5%)+1.96%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (60.3%)LeoVegas🎯 5.60 (18.2%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.5%)+1.96%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (60.3%)ReBet🎯 5.60 (18.2%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.5%)+1.96%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.3%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)Unibet (UK)🎯 4.25 (24.0%)+1.95%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (60.3%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)Unibet (UK)🎯 4.25 (24.0%)+1.95%
SportsBet🎯 1.62 (62.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.4%)+1.87%
betfred_uk🎯 1.62 (62.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.4%)+1.87%
Bet Right🎯 1.62 (62.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.4%)+1.87%
Betr (AU)🎯 1.62 (62.9%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.7%)Fanatics🎯 4.75 (21.4%)+1.87%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.6%)betfred_uk🎯 4.20 (24.2%)+1.66%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.6%)Bet Right🎯 4.20 (24.2%)+1.66%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.6%)Betr (AU)🎯 4.20 (24.2%)+1.66%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.6%)Sky Bet🎯 4.20 (24.2%)+1.66%
Pinnacle🎯 1.69 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.6%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.20 (24.2%)+1.66%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.6%)betfred_uk🎯 4.20 (24.2%)+1.66%
1xBet🎯 1.69 (60.2%)Fanatics🎯 6.50 (15.6%)Bet Right🎯 4.20 (24.2%)+1.66%

Showing 50 of 208 combinations