Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Middlesbrough v Norwich City

Inicio: 2026-09-12 14:00 UTC

Final: Middlesbrough 4–3 Norwich City

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Middlesbrough (Local)

Predicción 52.33%1.91momio equitativo
EV -2.15%
Ventaja -1.15%
Kelly -2.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.34%52.22%52.37%53.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.641.791.801.8760.98%55.75%55.56%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Norwich City (Visitante)

Predicción 23.58%4.24momio equitativo
EV +1.40%
Ventaja +0.326%
Kelly +0.425%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.20%23.66%23.63%25.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.913.904.3027.78%25.59%25.64%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.09%4.15momio equitativo
EV -3.64%
Ventaja -0.911%
Kelly -1.21%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.45%24.13%24.00%25.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.833.854.0027.78%26.12%25.97%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Middlesbrough (Local): 52.33%; Norwich City (Visitante): 23.58%; Empate: 24.09%. Para Norwich City (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.24. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.30, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.40%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.93%EV -7.38%E -4.17%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.20%EV +1.40%E +0.326%K +0.425%G +0.006%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.87%EV -3.64%E -0.911%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 16:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.35%EV -6.86%E -3.85%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%EV -0.955%E -0.227%K -0.298%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -4.85%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 13:20
GTbets🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.04%EV -6.86%E -3.85%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.81%EV -2.37%E -0.572%K -0.755%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.15%EV -5.81%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 13:30
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -3.64%E -0.911%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 13:44
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.62%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.10%EV -3.31%E -0.808%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.28%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 14:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -6.86%E -3.85%K -8.79%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -4.49%E -1.11%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 16:45
1xBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.07%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.26%EV -4.96%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.67%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 16:36
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.52%EV -2.15%E -1.15%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.39%EV -4.85%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-09 07:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.52%EV -2.15%E -1.15%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.39%EV -4.85%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-09 07:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.52%EV -2.15%E -1.15%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.09%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.39%EV -4.85%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-09 07:45
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -3.64%E -0.911%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 17:06
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.64%E -0.911%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 13:20
Bet Right🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.47%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.91%EV -4.85%E -1.23%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:25
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:30
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:20
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 14:20
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 17:30
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.67%E -1.42%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 17:30
NordicBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.65%EV -4.24%E -2.32%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.93%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.42%EV -6.77%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 14:27
Betsson🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.65%EV -4.24%E -2.32%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.93%EV -6.85%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.42%EV -6.77%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-09 14:30
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.56%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -7.26%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 14:22
BetUS🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.56%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%EV -7.26%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-09 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 07:44
Casumo🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 07:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 07:44
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 07:44
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 07:43
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -4.76%E -2.62%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 07:44
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -10.87%E -2.94%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 14:25
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -10.87%E -2.94%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -10.87%E -2.94%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -10.87%E -2.94%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 14:25
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -8.95%E -5.14%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 10:55
ReBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.59%EV -11.04%E -6.49%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -12.07%E -3.31%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 13:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.03%EV -12.61%E -7.55%K -18.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -8.03%E -2.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.26%EV -12.07%E -3.31%K -4.56%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-08 14:05
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.21%EV -5.29%E -2.92%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -9.67%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 07:44
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.10%EV -7.38%E -4.17%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -7.26%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -11.04%E -6.49%K -15.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -7.26%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-06 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.95%EV -13.13%E -7.91%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.83%EV -9.21%E -2.39%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.22%EV -12.56%E -3.46%K -4.77%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 13:24
SportsBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -2.15%E -1.15%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -3.64%E -0.911%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-09 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -3.19%E -1.73%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -3.64%E -0.911%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 14:20
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -10.39%E -2.73%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -4.24%E -2.32%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -3.64%E -0.911%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:05
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.09%EV -4.24%E -2.32%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 14:20
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%EV -6.33%E -3.54%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -12.07%E -3.31%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 07:44
TABtouch🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%EV -6.33%E -3.54%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -12.07%E -3.31%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-09 07:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.96%EV -6.86%E -3.85%K -8.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -11.57%E -3.08%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -12.07%E -3.31%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-09 07:45
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -4.24%E -2.32%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -12.75%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -6.05%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 14:20
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -4.24%E -2.32%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -12.75%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -8.46%E -2.23%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 14:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.75%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 07:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -5.81%E -3.23%K -7.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.75%E -3.44%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 07:45
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -8.42%E -4.81%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -15.10%E -4.20%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -9.67%E -2.58%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-09 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.33%EV -14.18%E -8.65%K -22.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.84%EV -15.10%E -4.20%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.84%EV -13.28%E -3.69%K -5.11%G +0.000%16.5%2026-09-07 15:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-09-09 17:30
Matchbook◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.15%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.42%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.42%2.4%2026-09-09 17:35
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.29%2.9%2026-09-09 14:30
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 50.68%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.50%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82%3.3%2026-09-09 17:30