Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cardiff City v West Ham United

2026-11-04 19:45 UTC — Championship

Resultado del partido

43 corredores (9 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Cardiff City (Local)

Predicción 25.82%3.87momio equitativo
EV -0.595%
Ventaja -0.154%
Kelly -0.209%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.87%25.84%25.66%27.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.603.603.8531.25%27.82%27.78%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

West Ham United (Visitante)

Predicción 51.96%1.92momio equitativo
EV -3.87%
Ventaja -2.09%
Kelly -4.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.52%51.86%52.16%52.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.611.791.801.8562.11%55.77%55.56%54.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 22.22%4.50momio equitativo
EV -4.46%
Ventaja -1.04%
Kelly -1.35%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.82%22.30%22.17%23.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.804.104.104.3026.32%24.37%24.39%23.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Cardiff City (Local): 25.82%; West Ham United (Visitante): 51.96%; Empate: 22.22%. Para Cardiff City (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.87. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.85, con un valor esperado de -0.595%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (43 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -0.595%E -0.154%K -0.209%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.72%EV -5.57%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-28 20:30
ATG (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -0.595%E -0.154%K -0.209%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.72%EV -5.57%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-28 20:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 25.08%EV -0.595%E -0.154%K -0.209%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.20%EV -3.87%E -2.09%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.72%EV -5.57%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-28 20:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -1.89%E -0.496%K -0.673%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.85%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -4.46%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-29 05:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -3.18%E -0.847%K -1.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.81%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -11.12%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-28 20:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.22%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-29 05:25
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -8.90%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 20:35
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -8.90%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 20:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -8.90%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 20:35
betPARX🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -8.90%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 20:35
Bally Bet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -4.47%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -8.90%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-28 20:34
GTbets🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 25.78%EV -5.50%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.85%EV -5.43%E -2.98%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.36%EV -6.23%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-29 08:45
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -5.76%E -1.58%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.60%EV -6.99%E -3.90%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -11.12%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-28 20:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.64I 27.47%NM 25.56%EV -6.02%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -7.51%E -4.22%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-29 06:05
1xBet🎯3.62I 27.62%NM 25.82%EV -6.53%E -1.80%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-29 18:30
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.57%EV -4.39%E -2.39%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -4.46%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-29 14:25
Coral🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.91%E -2.68%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-29 14:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.91%E -2.68%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-29 14:30
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -4.91%E -2.68%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-29 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.71%EV -5.43%E -2.98%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -5.57%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-29 05:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -5.43%E -2.98%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-29 14:25
Neds🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.58%EV -5.43%E -2.98%K -6.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-29 14:25
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.46%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 14:25
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.12%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -4.46%E -1.04%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 05:55
LeoVegas🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.27%EV -8.03%E -4.54%K -10.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-30 01:25
picklebet_au🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -11.12%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-28 20:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -7.05%E -1.96%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.42%EV -6.99%E -3.90%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -11.12%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-28 20:35
Bet Right🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.25%EV -4.39%E -2.39%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.19%EV -5.57%E -1.31%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-29 17:10
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.97%EV -4.91%E -2.68%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -8.90%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-29 22:37
PlayUp🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.10%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -11.12%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-29 14:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -7.51%E -4.22%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.34%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-28 20:35
BetRivers🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -7.51%E -4.22%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.34%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-28 20:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -7.51%E -4.22%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.34%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-28 20:35
TABtouch🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -8.34%E -2.35%K -3.27%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -7.51%E -4.22%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -13.34%E -3.42%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-28 20:35
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -9.63%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.06%EV -4.91%E -2.68%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-29 14:50
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.63%E -2.75%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.61%EV -9.07%E -5.18%K -12.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -11.12%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-29 05:49
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -10.92%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 51.85%EV -9.59%E -5.51%K -12.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.00%EV -8.90%E -2.17%K -2.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-28 20:20
PMU (FR)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -10.92%E -3.17%K -4.46%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.11%EV -10.11%E -5.84%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.27%EV -15.57%E -4.10%K -5.56%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-28 20:35
Betclic (FR)🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 25.64%EV -11.70%E -3.42%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.58%EV -11.67%E -6.86%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.78%EV -14.46%E -3.75%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-28 20:20
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.21%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -6.68%E -1.59%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-29 06:10
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.21%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -6.47%E -3.59%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -11.12%E -2.78%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-29 05:29
Unibet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.24%EV -13.50%E -4.03%K -5.75%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 52.51%EV -16.34%E -10.15%K -26.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.25%EV -15.57%E -4.10%K -5.56%G +0.000%18.3%2026-10-28 20:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 26.53%EV -17.38%E -5.43%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.14%EV -13.74%E -8.28%K -20.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.34%EV -15.57%E -4.10%K -5.56%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-28 20:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.92%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.22%7.9%2026-10-30 02:35
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.95%13.2%2026-10-28 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 27.80%1.39I 71.94%NM 43.61%2.12I 47.17%NM 28.59%65.0%2026-10-29 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 27.80%1.39I 71.94%NM 43.61%2.12I 47.17%NM 28.59%65.0%2026-10-29 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 22.23%1.39I 71.94%NM 34.87%1.13I 88.50%NM 42.89%106.3%2026-10-29 23:35