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Vasco da Gama v Olimpia Asunción
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vasco da Gama (Local)
Prediction 55.60%1.80fair odd
EV -5.48%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -7.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.70%55.98%55.60%58.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.641.631.7064.10%60.96%61.35%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Olimpia Asunción (Visit)
Prediction 19.15%5.22fair odd
EV +11.09%
Edge +1.91%
Kelly +2.31%
Growth +0.256%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.67%18.82%19.15%20.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.034.925.8023.81%19.88%20.33%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.24%3.96fair odd
EV -0.283%
Edge -0.072%
Kelly -0.096%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.06%25.20%25.24%26.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.613.603.9530.30%27.72%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 55.60%; Olimpia Asunción (Visit): 19.15%; Draw: 25.24%. For Olimpia Asunción (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.22. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.09%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.89%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV +11.09%E +1.91%K +2.31%G +0.256% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.44%EV -4.07%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-17 15:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.75%EV -9.37%E -5.75%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV +7.26%E +1.30%K +1.58%G +0.115% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.75%EV -9.37%E -5.75%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV +7.26%E +1.30%K +1.58%G +0.115% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.75%EV -9.37%E -5.75%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV +7.26%E +1.30%K +1.58%G +0.115% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.75%EV -9.37%E -5.75%K -14.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.81%EV +7.26%E +1.30%K +1.58%G +0.115% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.66%EV -9.93%E -6.13%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.28%EV +5.35%E +0.972%K +1.19%G +0.064% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.06%EV -0.283%E -0.072%K -0.096%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-20 23:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.91%EV -12.71%E -8.09%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.84%EV +3.43%E +0.636%K +0.780%G +0.027% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.91%EV -12.71%E -8.09%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.84%EV +3.43%E +0.636%K +0.780%G +0.027% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.06%EV -13.26%E -8.50%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.77%EV +3.43%E +0.636%K +0.780%G +0.027% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.06%EV -13.26%E -8.50%K -23.68%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.77%EV +3.43%E +0.636%K +0.780%G +0.027% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-17 15:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -8.26%E -5.01%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.54%EV -5.19%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -10.38%E -2.92%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-21 16:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.84%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.92I 20.33%NM 18.95%EV -5.76%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-21 21:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -6.59%E -3.92%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 4.92I 20.33%NM 18.94%EV -5.76%E -1.17%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.60%EV -8.11%E -2.23%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-21 21:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.62%EV -6.59%E -3.92%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.92%EV -5.33%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 04:13 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -11.64%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 21:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -11.64%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 21:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -11.64%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 21:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.48%E -3.22%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.25%EV -8.06%E -1.68%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -11.64%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-21 21:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.83%EV -9.93%E -6.13%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-21 15:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.99%EV -10.48%E -6.51%K -17.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.98%EV -9.02%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -9.12%E -2.53%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-21 15:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.06%EV -6.03%E -3.57%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -9.97%E -2.12%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -6.59%E -1.78%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 10:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.34%EV -7.15%E -4.28%K -10.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.73%EV -11.89%E -2.58%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -11.64%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.98%EV -8.26%E -5.01%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -17.06%E -3.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -11.64%E -3.33%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-21 21:34 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 53.93%EV -11.04%E -6.90%K -18.40%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 19.93%EV -17.06%E -3.94%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -16.69%E -5.06%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-04-21 15:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.70%EV -9.93%E -6.13%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.71%EV -19.55%E -4.66%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.59%EV -14.17%E -4.17%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-21 22:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 53.38% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 20.96% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.66% | 16.4% | 2026-04-21 22:50 |