The School of Odds

Vasco da Gama v Independiente Medellín

2026-07-29 22:00 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 55.74%1.79fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -4.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.74%55.74%55.95%57.66%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.651.7465%61%61%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Independiente Medellín (Visit)

Prediction 19.38%5.16fair odd
EV +2.72%
Edge +0.513%
Kelly +0.633%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.41%19.38%19.22%19.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.454.814.805.3022%21%21%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.88%4.02fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.376%
Kelly -0.503%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.04%24.88%24.83%25.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.663.603.9629%27%28%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.60I 62.50%NM 57.66%EV -10.81%E -6.76%K -18.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.41%EV +2.72%E +0.513%K +0.633%G +0.017%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -7.96%E -2.15%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-23 05:59
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 56.37%EV -3.01%E -1.73%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.86%EV +0.783%E +0.151%K +0.186%G +0.001%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.77%EV -1.49%E -0.376%K -0.503%G +0.000%2.0%2026-07-23 01:55
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 57.14%EV -12.48%E -7.95%K -21.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -3.09%E -0.619%K -0.773%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-23 05:59
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -8.02%E -4.86%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.54%EV -4.06%E -0.821%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -11.69%E -3.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-23 06:34
LeoVegas1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -8.02%E -4.86%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.13%EV -5.03%E -1.03%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -2.98%E -0.765%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-23 01:54
Pinnacle1.66I 60.24%NM 56.10%EV -7.47%E -4.50%K -11.31%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.00%EV -5.03%E -1.03%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.90%EV -6.96%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-23 03:20
Codere (IT)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.39%EV -8.58%E -5.23%K -13.41%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -6.97%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -5.47%E -1.44%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-23 01:55
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -10.85%E -2.36%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 02:10
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -10.85%E -2.36%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 02:10
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -10.85%E -2.36%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 02:10
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -6.91%E -4.14%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -10.85%E -2.36%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-23 02:09
Sky Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 55.78%EV -13.60%E -8.77%K -24.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.79%EV -10.85%E -2.36%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.43%EV -15.42%E -4.54%K -6.43%G +0.000%15.7%2026-07-23 05:59
Unibet (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 55.67%EV -13.04%E -8.36%K -23.29%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.52%EV -13.75%E -3.09%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.81%EV -12.93%E -3.70%K -5.17%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-23 01:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.58I 63.29%NM 55.87%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.62%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%13.3%2026-07-23 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.68I 59.52%NM 50.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.13%2.96I 33.78%NM 28.56%18.3%2026-07-23 04:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.68I 59.52%NM 50.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.13%2.96I 33.78%NM 28.56%18.3%2026-07-23 05:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 50.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.13%2.96I 33.78%NM 28.56%18.3%2026-07-23 05:35