The School of Odds
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Vasco da Gama v Independiente Medellín

Kickoff: 2026-07-29 22:00 UTC

Final: Vasco da Gama 1–0 Independiente Medellín

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 63.85%1.57fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.666%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.66%63.80%64.16%64.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.461.5571.43%68.39%68.49%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Independiente Medellín (Visit)

Prediction 13.82%7.23fair odd
EV +3.67%
Edge +0.489%
Kelly +0.564%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.77%13.86%13.57%16.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.326.107.5018.18%15.82%16.39%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.33%4.48fair odd
EV +0.696%
Edge +0.154%
Kelly +0.198%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.03%22.34%22.27%22.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.164.134.5125.64%24.05%24.24%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 63.85%; Independiente Medellín (Visit): 13.82%; Draw: 22.33%. For Independiente Medellín (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.23. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.70%EV -5.50%E -3.72%K -11.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.77%EV +3.67%E +0.489%K +0.564%G +0.021%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.53%EV -5.11%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.4%2026-07-29 21:40
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.36%EV -6.14%E -4.18%K -13.06%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.33%EV -1.86%E -0.262%K -0.305%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.31%EV -5.33%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-29 21:55
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -5.50%E -3.72%K -11.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -3.24%E -0.463%K -0.540%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -3.99%E -0.929%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-29 21:30
SportsBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.55%EV -9.33%E -6.57%K -22.22%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.09%EV -3.24%E -0.463%K -0.540%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.36%EV -8.46%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-29 21:40
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -10.61%E -7.58%K -26.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -3.24%E -0.463%K -0.540%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -10.69%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-29 21:40
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.58%EV -4.22%E -2.82%K -8.45%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.24%EV -7.39%E -1.10%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -3.99%E -0.929%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-29 21:55
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.06%E -5.59%K -18.31%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -10.15%E -1.56%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -10.69%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-29 21:35
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.52%EV -10.61%E -7.58%K -26.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.68%EV -10.15%E -1.56%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -12.92%E -3.31%K -4.46%G +0.000%12.5%2026-07-29 21:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.15%EV -5.50%E -3.72%K -11.46%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -11.54%E -1.80%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -6.23%E -1.48%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-29 21:45
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.29%EV -6.78%E -4.64%K -14.74%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.44%EV -11.54%E -1.80%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -7.34%E -1.77%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-29 21:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.33%EV -1.03%E -0.666%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.46%EV -13.61%E -2.18%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.21%EV -2.88%E -0.661%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-29 21:55
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -4.22%E -2.82%K -8.45%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -15.68%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -5.11%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 21:55
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -4.22%E -2.82%K -8.45%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -15.68%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -5.11%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -4.22%E -2.82%K -8.45%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -15.68%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -5.11%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -4.22%E -2.82%K -8.45%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.38%EV -15.68%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.07%EV -5.11%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-29 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.65%EV -10.61%E -7.58%K -26.52%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -15.68%E -2.57%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -8.46%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-29 21:45
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.22%EV -4.22%E -2.82%K -8.45%G +0.000%6.02I 16.61%NM 15.75%EV -16.79%E -2.79%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.03%EV +0.696%E +0.154%K +0.198%G +0.001%5.5%2026-07-29 21:55
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.33%EV -6.14%E -4.18%K -13.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -17.07%E -2.84%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -1.76%E -0.400%K -0.518%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-29 21:52
Virgin Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.52%EV -6.78%E -4.64%K -14.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -17.07%E -2.84%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -8.46%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-29 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.52%EV -6.78%E -4.64%K -14.74%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.21%EV -17.07%E -2.84%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -8.46%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-29 21:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.68%EV -7.42%E -5.12%K -16.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -17.07%E -2.84%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -8.46%E -2.06%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-29 21:55
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.06%E -5.59%K -18.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.07%E -2.84%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -10.69%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-29 21:55
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.06%E -5.59%K -18.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.07%E -2.84%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -10.69%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-29 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.06%E -5.59%K -18.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.07%E -2.84%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -10.69%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-29 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.50%EV -8.06%E -5.59%K -18.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -17.07%E -2.84%K -3.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -10.69%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-29 21:55
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -8.06%E -5.59%K -18.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -23.98%E -4.36%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.69%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-29 21:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11%0.5%2026-07-29 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11%0.5%2026-07-29 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.44%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.11%0.5%2026-07-29 21:55
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.40%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.66%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.94%1.3%2026-07-29 21:55

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