The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Vasco da Gama v Audax Italiano

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 00:00 UTC

Final: Vasco da Gama 1–2 Audax Italiano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 66.93%1.49fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -4.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.83%66.85%66.93%67.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4675.19%71.88%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Audax Italiano (Visit)

Prediction 12.24%8.17fair odd
EV +0.355%
Edge +0.043%
Kelly +0.049%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.60%12.32%12.24%14.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.157.008.2016.67%13.99%14.29%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.83%4.80fair odd
EV +2.09%
Edge +0.426%
Kelly +0.535%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.55%20.83%20.83%21.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.504.504.9024.10%22.22%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 66.93%; Audax Italiano (Visit): 12.24%; Draw: 20.83%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 67.15%EV -2.95%E -2.04%K -6.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.98%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV +2.09%E +0.426%K +0.535%G +0.011%2.7%2026-04-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 23:39
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 23:40
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 23:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 23:40
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.20%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-14 23:34
1xBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 66.26%EV -2.29%E -1.57%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.56I 13.23%NM 12.80%EV -7.48%E -0.989%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.94%EV -3.75%E -0.811%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-14 23:55
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.54%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.94I 12.59%NM 11.91%EV -2.83%E -0.356%K -0.407%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.16%E -0.905%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-14 23:45
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.16%E -0.905%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 23:43
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -7.64%E -5.54%K -20.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -4.16%E -0.905%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-14 23:40
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.61%EV -10.99%E -8.26%K -33.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -4.16%E -0.905%K -1.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-14 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-14 23:40
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-14 23:38
LiveScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-14 23:40
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.99%E -8.26%K -33.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-14 22:55
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.01%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.60%EV +0.355%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -7.29%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-14 23:34
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.66%EV -6.97%E -5.01%K -17.87%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.52%EV -9.44%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.82%EV -7.29%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-14 23:20
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 23:39
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 23:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 23:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 23:39
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.15%EV -10.99%E -8.26%K -33.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -20.45%E -3.15%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.32%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-14 23:40
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-14 23:35
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -26.57%E -4.43%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-14 23:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 64.83%EV -10.32%E -7.70%K -30.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.24%EV -25.35%E -4.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.93%EV -13.54%E -3.26%K -4.30%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-14 23:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-04-14 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-04-14 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-04-14 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-04-14 23:45
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.74%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.99%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.7%2026-04-14 23:40