La scuola delle quote

Vasco da Gama v Audax Italiano

Inizio: 2026-04-15 00:00 UTC

Finale: Vasco da Gama 1–2 Audax Italiano

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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25 bookmaker (4 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Vasco da Gama (Casa)

Previsione 66.93%1.49quota equa
EV -2.29%
Vantaggio -1.57%
Kelly -4.97%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.46

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
63.83%66.85%66.93%67.61%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.331.391.401.4675.19%71.88%71.43%68.49%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Audax Italiano (Trasferta)

Previsione 12.24%8.17quota equa
EV +0.355%
Vantaggio +0.043%
Kelly +0.049%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 8.20

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
11.60%12.32%12.24%14.89%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
6.007.157.008.2016.67%13.99%14.29%12.20%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 20.83%4.80quota equa
EV +2.09%
Vantaggio +0.426%
Kelly +0.535%
Crescita +0.011%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.90

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
19.55%20.83%20.83%21.38%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
4.154.504.504.9024.10%22.22%22.22%20.41%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (25 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
ATG (SE)1.45I 68.97%NM 67.15%EV -2.95%E -2.04%K -6.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.98%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.87%EV +2.09%E +0.426%K +0.535%G +0.011%2.7%2026-04-14 23:40
Unibet (NL)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 23:39
Unibet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 23:40
Casumo1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 23:39
Svenska Spel1.42I 70.42%NM 67.05%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 23:40
DraftKings1.41I 70.92%NM 67.20%EV -5.63%E -3.99%K -13.74%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -8.21%E -1.09%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.16%EV -2.08%E -0.443%K -0.563%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-14 23:34
1xBet1.46I 68.49%NM 66.26%EV -2.29%E -1.57%K -4.97%G +0.000%7.56I 13.23%NM 12.80%EV -7.48%E -0.989%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.94%EV -3.75%E -0.811%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-14 23:55
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 67.54%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.94I 12.59%NM 11.91%EV -2.83%E -0.356%K -0.407%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.16%E -0.905%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-14 23:45
Bovada1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.16%E -0.905%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 23:43
Virgin Bet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -7.64%E -5.54%K -20.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -4.16%E -0.905%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-14 23:40
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 67.61%EV -10.99%E -8.26%K -33.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.55%EV -4.16%E -0.905%K -1.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-14 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-14 23:40
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-14 23:38
LiveScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-14 23:40
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 67.31%EV -10.99%E -8.26%K -33.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-14 22:55
Coolbet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.01%EV -4.96%E -3.49%K -11.82%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.60%EV +0.355%E +0.043%K +0.049%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -7.29%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-14 23:34
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 66.66%EV -6.97%E -5.01%K -17.87%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.52%EV -9.44%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.82%EV -7.29%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-14 23:20
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 23:39
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 23:30
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 23:30
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-14 23:39
Sky Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.15%EV -10.99%E -8.26%K -33.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -20.45%E -3.15%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.32%EV -9.79%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-14 23:40
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -8.98%E -6.60%K -24.94%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -14.33%E -2.05%K -2.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-14 23:35
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -6.30%E -4.50%K -15.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -26.57%E -4.43%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-14 23:50
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 64.83%EV -10.32%E -7.70%K -30.34%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.24%EV -25.35%E -4.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.93%EV -13.54%E -3.26%K -4.30%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-14 23:34
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (5)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-04-14 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-04-14 23:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-04-14 23:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.44I 69.44%NM 68.85%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.09%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.06%0.9%2026-04-14 23:45
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.74%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.99%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.27%1.7%2026-04-14 23:40