The School of Odds

Sporting Cristal v Bragantino-SP

Kickoff: 2026-07-23 00:30 UTC

Final: Sporting Cristal 0–0 Bragantino-SP

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Sporting Cristal (Local)

Prediction 31.99%3.13fair odd
EV -0.836%
Edge -0.270%
Kelly -0.398%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%31.90%32.03%32.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.752.892.903.1036%35%34%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 39.39%2.54fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.61%39.46%39.39%41.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.382.4547%42%42%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.62%3.49fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.368%
Kelly -0.519%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.65%28.64%28.58%30.11%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.4533%31%31%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet3.10I 32.26%NM 30.73%EV -0.836%E -0.270%K -0.398%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.24%EV -9.00%E -3.90%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.02%EV -2.70%E -0.795%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-23 00:25
ATG (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.22%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.77%EV -4.27%E -1.76%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.01%EV -1.27%E -0.368%K -0.519%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-23 00:24
LeoVegas3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.41%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.93%EV -2.70%E -0.795%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-23 00:25
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-23 00:24
betfred_uk3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -4.03%E -1.34%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -13.33%E -6.06%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -5.56%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 23:44
Unibet2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.73%EV -6.24%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 00:24
Unibet (NL)2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.73%EV -6.24%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 00:24
Casumo2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.73%EV -6.24%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 00:25
Svenska Spel2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.73%EV -6.24%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-23 00:24
Codere (IT)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.62%EV -5.63%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.69%EV -7.42%E -3.16%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.70%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-23 00:24
Pinnacle2.94I 34.01%NM 32.44%EV -5.95%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.09%EV -3.88%E -1.59%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-23 00:25
1xBet2.94I 34.01%NM 32.31%EV -5.95%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.25%EV -4.67%E -1.93%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.44%EV -4.42%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-23 00:24
NordicBet2.92I 34.25%NM 31.72%EV -6.59%E -2.26%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -10.18%E -4.47%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-23 00:24
DraftKings2.90I 34.48%NM 32.79%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.82%EV -3.48%E -1.42%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -4.13%E -1.23%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-23 00:25
Unibet (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -7.23%E -2.49%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.44%EV -15.30%E -7.12%K -13.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.84%EV -8.43%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-23 00:24
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 32.77%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.92%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -5.56%E -1.69%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-23 00:23
SportsBet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-23 00:24
LiveScore Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -9.39%E -4.08%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -9.39%E -4.08%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 00:24
Virgin Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -9.39%E -4.08%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 00:24
PMU (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -8.83%E -3.10%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -9.39%E -4.08%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 00:25
888sport2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 00:24
William Hill2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 00:24
888sport (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 00:25
Mr Green (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-23 00:25
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -5.45%E -2.27%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -14.15%E -4.72%K -7.07%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-23 00:24
Sky Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -12.03%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.61%EV -6.24%E -2.62%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -14.15%E -4.72%K -7.07%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-23 00:25
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -12.03%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -9.39%E -4.08%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -11.29%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-23 00:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.68%0.6%2026-07-23 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.68%0.6%2026-07-23 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.57%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.21%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.22%0.7%2026-07-23 00:24
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 32.34%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.23%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.44%1.4%2026-07-23 00:25