The School of Odds
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Sao Paulo v O'Higgins

Kickoff: 2026-04-14 22:00 UTC

Final: Sao Paulo 2–0 O'Higgins

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 70.59%1.42fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -3.48%
Kelly -13.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.34%70.55%70.46%72.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.321.3580.00%76.61%75.76%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

O'Higgins (Visit)

Prediction 9.49%10.53fair odd
EV +4.44%
Edge +0.404%
Kelly +0.444%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.56%9.47%9.45%10.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.0810.0011.0011.76%9.92%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.91%5.02fair odd
EV +1.55%
Edge +0.305%
Kelly +0.379%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.87%19.98%20.09%21.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.654.705.1023.09%21.49%21.28%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sao Paulo (Local): 70.59%; O'Higgins (Visit): 9.49%; Draw: 19.91%. For O'Higgins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.53. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 72.08%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.43%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.85%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.08%EV +1.55%E +0.305%K +0.379%G +0.006%2.8%2026-04-14 21:30
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.97%EV -6.82%E -5.16%K -21.30%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.39%EV -2.43%E -0.495%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 21:30
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.97%EV -6.82%E -5.16%K -21.30%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.39%EV -2.43%E -0.495%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.97%EV -6.82%E -5.16%K -21.30%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.39%EV -2.43%E -0.495%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 21:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.97%EV -6.82%E -5.16%K -21.30%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +4.44%E +0.404%K +0.444%G +0.020%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.39%EV -2.43%E -0.495%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 21:30
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.79%EV -5.41%E -4.03%K -15.90%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.03%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -6.41%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 21:30
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.70%EV -8.23%E -6.33%K -27.43%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.88%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.42%EV -4.42%E -0.921%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 21:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.87%EV -9.64%E -7.53%K -34.43%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -5.41%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-14 21:30
LeoVegas🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.04%EV -11.05%E -8.77%K -42.51%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -6.41%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-14 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.04%EV -11.05%E -8.77%K -42.51%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -6.41%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-14 21:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 72.04%EV -11.05%E -8.77%K -42.51%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.65%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.31%EV -6.41%E -1.36%K -1.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-14 21:30
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.90%EV -11.76%E -9.41%K -47.04%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.56%EV -0.307%E -0.029%K -0.032%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.54%EV -8.40%E -1.83%K -2.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-14 20:45
Bovada🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.07%EV -6.82%E -5.16%K -21.30%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -4.42%E -0.921%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-14 20:41
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.44%EV -6.11%E -4.60%K -18.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.33%EV -13.78%E -3.18%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-14 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.44%EV -6.11%E -4.60%K -18.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.33%EV -13.78%E -3.18%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-14 21:30
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.29%EV -11.76%E -9.41%K -47.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.91%EV -5.05%E -0.505%K -0.562%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.39%E -2.31%K -2.97%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-14 19:10
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.63%EV -6.82%E -5.16%K -21.30%G +0.000%9.96I 10.04%NM 9.49%EV -5.43%E -0.546%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 18.87%EV -0.237%E -0.047%K -0.059%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-14 21:30
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.07%EV -4.70%E -3.48%K -13.43%G +0.000%9.85I 10.15%NM 9.74%EV -6.48%E -0.658%K -0.732%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.19%EV -0.437%E -0.087%K -0.109%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-14 17:00
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.87%EV -6.82%E -5.16%K -21.30%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.41%EV -6.95%E -0.710%K -0.790%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -11.39%E -2.56%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-14 15:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.81%EV -5.41%E -4.03%K -15.90%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.85%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -8.40%E -1.83%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-14 07:59
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.11%E -4.60%K -18.52%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -12.38%E -2.81%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-14 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.34%EV -6.11%E -4.60%K -18.52%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -12.38%E -2.81%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-14 21:30
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.75%EV -8.94%E -6.93%K -30.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -9.80%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -13.78%E -3.18%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-14 21:30
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.38%EV -8.94%E -6.93%K -30.81%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -14.55%E -1.62%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.67%EV -13.78%E -3.18%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-14 20:25
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.36%EV -8.23%E -6.33%K -27.43%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.61%EV -19.30%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -10.39%E -2.31%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-14 21:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 69.55%EV -11.05%E -8.77%K -42.51%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.31%EV -19.30%E -2.27%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.14%EV -13.38%E -3.08%K -3.99%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-14 21:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.20%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.66%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.14%0.5%2026-04-14 21:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.92%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%0.8%2026-04-14 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.92%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%0.8%2026-04-14 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.92%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%0.8%2026-04-14 21:30
Smarkets◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.61%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.17%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.22%2.0%2026-04-14 21:30