The School of Odds
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Sao Paulo v Millonarios

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 00:30 UTC

Final: Sao Paulo 1–1 Millonarios

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 56.28%1.78fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -4.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.79%56.23%56.41%58.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.621.621.7264.10%61.57%61.73%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Millonarios (Visit)

Prediction 17.55%5.70fair odd
EV +7.04%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.097%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.04%17.51%17.73%18.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.455.506.1020.00%18.35%18.18%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -0.531%
Edge -0.140%
Kelly -0.189%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.58%26.25%25.86%26.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.543.553.8029.41%28.22%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sao Paulo (Local): 56.28%; Millonarios (Visit): 17.55%; Draw: 26.18%. For Millonarios (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.70. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 58.22%EV -5.46%E -3.25%K -8.02%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 16.04%EV +7.04%E +1.15%K +1.38%G +0.097%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.74%EV -0.531%E -0.140%K -0.189%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-19 19:50
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV +1.78%E +0.307%K +0.370%G +0.007%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-19 19:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV +1.78%E +0.307%K +0.370%G +0.007%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-19 19:50
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV +1.78%E +0.307%K +0.370%G +0.007%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-19 19:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV +1.78%E +0.307%K +0.370%G +0.007%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-19 19:50
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.52%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.62%EV +0.199%E +0.035%K +0.042%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -3.93%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-19 22:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -11.65%E -7.42%K -20.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.28%EV -1.73%E -0.309%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-19 19:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -11.65%E -7.42%K -20.43%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.28%EV -1.73%E -0.309%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-19 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.21%EV -12.21%E -7.83%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -1.73%E -0.309%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-19 19:50
LeoVegas🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.21%EV -12.21%E -7.83%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -1.73%E -0.309%K -0.376%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-19 19:50
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.24%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.02%EV -2.61%E -0.470%K -0.573%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.74%EV -3.93%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-19 22:59
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.08%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.49%E -0.634%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-19 22:59
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -3.49%E -0.634%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.38%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-19 22:59
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -9.96%E -6.22%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -3.49%E -0.634%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.38%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-19 22:59
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -11.65%E -7.42%K -20.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -3.49%E -0.634%K -0.775%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.38%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-19 22:59
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.04%EV -7.71%E -4.70%K -12.04%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -5.24%E -0.971%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-19 22:59
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.13%EV -5.24%E -0.971%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -9.69%E -2.81%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-19 22:59
Coolbet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.37%EV -3.21%E -1.86%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.80%EV -6.12%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-19 19:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.41%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.87%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-19 22:59
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -11.65%E -7.42%K -20.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -7.87%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-19 22:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 56.67%EV -12.21%E -7.83%K -21.80%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.33%EV -10.51%E -2.06%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-19 22:58
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.02%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-19 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.02%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-19 22:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.02%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-19 22:59
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.02%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-19 22:59
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.96%E -6.22%K -16.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.87%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-19 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.14%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.43%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.65%1.3%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.43%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.65%1.3%2026-05-19 22:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.43%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.65%1.3%2026-05-19 22:59
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.52%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.76%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.72%2.3%2026-05-19 22:59