L’École des cotesFrançais
Sao Paulo v Millonarios
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Sao Paulo (Local)
Prévision 56.28%1.78cote équitable
EV -3.21%
Avantage -1.86%
Kelly -4.45%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.72
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.79%56.23%56.41%58.22%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.561.621.621.7264.10%61.57%61.73%58.14%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Millonarios (Visiteur)
Prévision 17.55%5.70cote équitable
EV +7.04%
Avantage +1.15%
Kelly +1.38%
Croissance +0.097%
avec la cote maximale 6.10
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.04%17.51%17.73%18.30%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
5.005.455.506.1020.00%18.35%18.18%16.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 26.18%3.82cote équitable
EV -0.531%
Avantage -0.140%
Kelly -0.189%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.80
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.58%26.25%25.86%26.91%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.543.553.8029.41%28.22%28.17%26.32%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (26 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.22%EV -5.46%E -3.25%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 16.04%EV +7.04%E +1.15%K +1.38%G +0.097% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.74%EV -0.531%E -0.140%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| Unibet | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV +1.78%E +0.307%K +0.370%G +0.007% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV +1.78%E +0.307%K +0.370%G +0.007% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| Casumo | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV +1.78%E +0.307%K +0.370%G +0.007% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%EV +1.78%E +0.307%K +0.370%G +0.007% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.52%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 5.71I 17.51%NM 16.62%EV +0.199%E +0.035%K +0.042%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -3.93%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -11.65%E -7.42%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.28%EV -1.73%E -0.309%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.05%EV -11.65%E -7.42%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.28%EV -1.73%E -0.309%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.21%EV -12.21%E -7.83%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -1.73%E -0.309%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.21%EV -12.21%E -7.83%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -1.73%E -0.309%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-19 19:50 |
| 1xBet | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.24%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.02%EV -2.61%E -0.470%K -0.573%G +0.000% | 3.67I 27.25%NM 25.74%EV -3.93%E -1.07%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| DraftKings | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.08%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -3.49%E -0.634%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.80%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| betfred_uk | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -8.83%E -5.45%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -3.49%E -0.634%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.38%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -9.96%E -6.22%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -3.49%E -0.634%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.38%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Paddy Power | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -11.65%E -7.42%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -3.49%E -0.634%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -8.38%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Bovada | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.04%EV -7.71%E -4.70%K -12.04%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -5.24%E -0.971%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -4.46%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| NordicBet | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.13%EV -5.24%E -0.971%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -9.69%E -2.81%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Coolbet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.37%EV -3.21%E -1.86%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.80%EV -6.12%E -1.14%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.83%EV -7.07%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-19 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.41%EV -7.14%E -4.33%K -10.99%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -7.87%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.77%E -1.60%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Sky Bet | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -11.65%E -7.42%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -7.87%E -1.50%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.67%EV -12.21%E -7.83%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.33%EV -10.51%E -2.06%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.00%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-19 22:58 |
| 888sport | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.02%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.02%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.02%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| William Hill | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -6.02%E -3.60%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Coral | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -9.96%E -6.22%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.87%EV -12.26%E -2.45%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.00%E -3.24%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.14% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82% | 0.6% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.65% | 1.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.65% | 1.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.93% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.65% | 1.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |
| Smarkets | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.52% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.76% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.72% | 2.3% | 2026-05-19 22:59 |