The School of Odds
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Sao Paulo v Club Bolívar

Kickoff: 2026-08-19 00:30 UTC

Final: Sao Paulo 3–1 Club Bolívar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sao Paulo (Local)

Prediction 66.81%1.50fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -8.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.57%66.58%66.82%67.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.401.401.4474.63%71.50%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Club Bolívar (Visit)

Prediction 12.34%8.11fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.165%
Kelly -0.188%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.82%12.32%12.33%13.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.327.508.0015.38%13.66%13.33%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.86%4.79fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -0.880%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.38%21.10%20.86%22.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.274.254.6025.00%23.44%23.53%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sao Paulo (Local): 66.81%; Club Bolívar (Visit): 12.34%; Draw: 20.86%. For Club Bolívar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.11. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 8.00, with an expected value of -1.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.80%E -2.64%K -8.63%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.00%EV -1.32%E -0.165%K -0.188%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -6.14%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-19 00:25
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.32%EV -4.47%E -3.12%K -10.39%G +0.000%7.13I 14.03%NM 13.10%EV -12.05%E -1.69%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.57%EV -9.68%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-19 00:20
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -1.32%E -0.165%K -0.188%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.13%EV -6.14%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 23:25
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.75%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -4.05%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-19 00:09
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.64%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.85I 12.74%NM 12.05%EV -3.17%E -0.403%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.31%EV -7.39%E -1.66%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-19 00:25
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.14%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-19 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.81%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -10.31%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 00:25
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.81%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -10.31%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 00:25
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.81%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -10.31%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.81%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -10.31%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-19 00:25
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.72%EV -5.14%E -3.62%K -12.23%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.59%EV -9.95%E -1.36%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.69%EV -15.52%E -3.83%K -5.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-19 00:08
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.62%EV -5.80%E -4.12%K -14.16%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.96%EV -10.57%E -1.46%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.05%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 00:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -4.05%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-19 00:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.96%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.67%EV -8.72%E -1.18%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -4.05%E -0.880%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-19 00:25
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.79%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -12.39%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-19 00:10
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -13.65%E -1.95%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.68%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-18 23:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -16.57%E -4.14%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-19 00:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -16.57%E -4.14%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-19 00:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -16.57%E -4.14%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-19 00:25
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -19.82%E -3.05%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.39%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-19 00:10
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.37%EV -7.81%E -5.66%K -20.55%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.82%EV -4.40%E -0.568%K -0.652%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -12.39%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-19 00:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.06%EV -8.48%E -6.19%K -22.91%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.20%EV -16.74%E -2.48%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -14.48%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-19 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.06%EV -8.48%E -6.19%K -22.91%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.20%EV -16.74%E -2.48%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -14.48%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-19 00:25
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.73%EV -9.14%E -6.72%K -25.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -7.48%E -0.998%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -16.57%E -4.14%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-18 23:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.22%EV -9.14%E -6.72%K -25.40%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -16.74%E -2.48%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -14.48%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-18 23:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.22%EV -9.14%E -6.72%K -25.40%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.14%EV -16.74%E -2.48%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.64%EV -14.48%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-18 23:55
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -9.14%E -6.72%K -25.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -13.65%E -1.95%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -16.57%E -4.14%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-19 00:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.96%EV -10.48%E -7.82%K -30.82%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.00%EV -16.12%E -2.37%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.04%EV -12.39%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-19 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.51%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-08-19 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.51%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-08-19 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.51%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-08-19 00:25
Smarkets◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.66%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.30%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%1.1%2026-08-19 00:25