Language:English
Sao Paulo v CA Boston River
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sao Paulo (Local)
Prediction 78.99%1.27fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -3.66%
Kelly -21.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.21
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.06%78.88%79.09%81.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.171.171.2188.50%85.74%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
CA Boston River (Visit)
Prediction 7.44%13.44fair odd
EV +26.51%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.439%
assuming max odds 17.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.74%7.43%7.32%8.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.6113.5017.0010.00%7.35%7.41%5.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 13.57%7.37fair odd
EV +11.29%
Edge +1.38%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.177%
assuming max odds 8.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.93%13.69%13.59%15.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.906.776.818.2016.95%14.78%14.68%12.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sao Paulo (Local): 78.99%; CA Boston River (Visit): 7.44%; Draw: 13.57%. For CA Boston River (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.44. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +26.51%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.26%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.74%EV +26.51%E +1.56%K +1.66%G +0.439% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 13.00%EV +1.79%E +0.238%K +0.275%G +0.005% | 2.5% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.35%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV +19.07%E +1.19%K +1.27%G +0.242% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 21:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.35%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV +19.07%E +1.19%K +1.27%G +0.242% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.35%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV +19.07%E +1.19%K +1.27%G +0.242% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 21:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -8.38%E -7.22%K -52.35%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV +19.07%E +1.19%K +1.27%G +0.242% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-26 21:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.47%EV -10.75%E -9.51%K -82.66%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV +11.63%E +0.775%K +0.831%G +0.097% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -8.39%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.47%EV -10.75%E -9.51%K -82.66%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV +11.63%E +0.775%K +0.831%G +0.097% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -8.39%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.47%EV -10.75%E -9.51%K -82.66%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV +11.63%E +0.775%K +0.831%G +0.097% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -8.39%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.47%EV -10.75%E -9.51%K -82.66%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV +11.63%E +0.775%K +0.831%G +0.097% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -8.39%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 80.47%EV -10.75%E -9.51%K -82.66%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV +11.63%E +0.775%K +0.831%G +0.097% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.47%EV -8.39%E -1.24%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-26 21:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.90%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.39%EV +7.91%E +0.545%K +0.586%G +0.046% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -19.93%E -3.38%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.86%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV +4.19%E +0.299%K +0.322%G +0.013% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -11.78%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.57%EV -9.96%E -8.73%K -71.11%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.48%EV +4.19%E +0.299%K +0.322%G +0.013% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.95%EV -11.78%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 21:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.83%EV -4.43%E -3.66%K -21.08%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.24%EV +0.465%E +0.034%K +0.037%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.93%EV +11.29%E +1.38%K +1.57%G +0.177% | 2.2% | 2026-05-26 21:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -3.26%E -0.250%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-26 21:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -3.26%E -0.250%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-26 21:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 79.17%EV -9.96%E -8.73%K -71.11%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.94%EV -3.26%E -0.250%K -0.271%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%EV -11.78%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-26 21:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -10.70%E -0.891%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -10.70%E -0.891%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-26 21:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -10.70%E -0.891%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.93%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -10.70%E -0.891%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.07%EV -7.59%E -6.48%K -44.62%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.71%EV -10.70%E -0.891%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.22%EV -5.00%E -0.714%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-26 21:38 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -9.96%E -8.73%K -71.11%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -10.70%E -0.891%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -18.57%E -3.09%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-26 21:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.82%EV -9.96%E -8.73%K -71.11%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.39%EV -10.70%E -0.891%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -18.57%E -3.09%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.22%EV -6.01%E -5.05%K -31.61%G +0.000% | 11.47I 8.72%NM 8.11%EV -14.64%E -1.28%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.81I 14.68%NM 13.67%EV -7.58%E -1.11%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -5.22%E -4.35%K -26.08%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -18.14%E -1.65%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -18.57%E -3.09%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-26 21:38 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -6.80%E -5.76%K -37.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -25.58%E -2.56%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -18.57%E -3.09%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.86% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.99% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.14% | 0.1% | 2026-05-26 21:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.65% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.24% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.11% | 0.4% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.53% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.38% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.09% | 0.5% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.53% | 18.50I 5.41%NM 5.38% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 13.09% | 0.5% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.37% | 18.48I 5.41%NM 5.33% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.30% | 1.6% | 2026-05-26 21:50 |