The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Santos v Macará

Kickoff: 2026-08-13 22:00 UTC

Final: Santos 2–1 Macará

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Santos (Local)

Prediction 67.03%1.49fair odd
EV -4.82%
Edge -3.39%
Kelly -11.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.23%66.98%67.11%69.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.381.4276.92%73.01%72.73%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Macará (Visit)

Prediction 11.38%8.79fair odd
EV +5.23%
Edge +0.566%
Kelly +0.634%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 9.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.35%11.37%11.36%13.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.858.009.2515.38%12.73%12.50%10.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.59%4.63fair odd
EV +5.82%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.087%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.50%21.65%21.52%23.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.374.404.9025.00%22.87%22.73%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Santos (Local): 67.03%; Macará (Visit): 11.38%; Draw: 21.59%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.25%EV -7.50%E -5.44%K -19.74%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.24%EV -3.30%E -0.388%K -0.440%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.50%EV +5.82%E +1.19%K +1.49%G +0.087%4.6%2026-08-13 21:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -8.84%E -6.50%K -24.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.50%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%7.3%2026-08-13 20:30
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -8.84%E -6.50%K -24.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.50%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%7.3%2026-08-13 20:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -8.84%E -6.50%K -24.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.50%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%7.3%2026-08-13 20:29
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -8.84%E -6.50%K -24.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV +1.50%E +0.318%K +0.404%G +0.006%7.3%2026-08-13 20:29
Coolbet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.85%EV -6.83%E -4.91%K -17.51%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.35%EV +5.23%E +0.566%K +0.634%G +0.033%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.80%EV -0.663%E -0.144%K -0.184%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-13 19:49
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.78%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -17.52%E -2.42%K -2.80%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -0.663%E -0.144%K -0.184%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-13 21:39
LeoVegas🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -2.82%E -0.627%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 21:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.88%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.32%EV -13.54%E -1.78%K -2.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.81%EV -2.82%E -0.627%K -0.806%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-13 21:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.40%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -14.68%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -2.82%E -0.627%K -0.806%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-13 21:39
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.77%EV -9.51%E -7.05%K -27.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-13 21:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.08%EV -12.86%E -9.89%K -42.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.80%EV -14.68%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.12%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-13 21:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.08%EV -12.86%E -9.89%K -42.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.80%EV -14.68%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.12%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-13 21:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.08%EV -12.86%E -9.89%K -42.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.80%EV -14.68%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.12%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-13 21:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.08%EV -12.86%E -9.89%K -42.88%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.80%EV -14.68%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.12%EV -4.98%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-13 21:04
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -8.84%E -6.50%K -24.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -6.49%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-13 21:44
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.85%E -8.16%K -32.89%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -14.68%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -6.49%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-13 21:49
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.79%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.48%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -3.30%E -0.388%K -0.440%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -7.14%E -1.66%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-13 21:50
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.83%EV -4.82%E -3.39%K -11.48%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.38%EV -14.11%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.79%EV -7.36%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-13 21:50
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.05%EV -5.49%E -3.89%K -13.39%G +0.000%9.05I 11.05%NM 10.45%EV +2.96%E +0.327%K +0.367%G +0.011%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -9.30%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-13 21:45
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.36%EV -6.83%E -4.91%K -17.51%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.68%EV -10.12%E -1.28%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.96%EV -9.30%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-13 21:39
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.23%EV -8.84%E -6.50%K -24.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -26.05%E -4.01%K -4.74%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -9.30%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-13 21:39
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.37%EV -10.85%E -8.16%K -32.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -20.36%E -2.91%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -9.30%E -2.21%K -2.91%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-13 21:34
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -3.30%E -0.388%K -0.440%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-13 21:49
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-13 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-13 21:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -6.16%E -4.40%K -15.40%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -8.99%E -1.12%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-13 21:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 65.35%EV -8.17%E -5.96%K -22.08%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.26%EV -16.95%E -2.32%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -13.62%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-13 21:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.63%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-08-13 21:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.63%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-08-13 21:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.63%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.06%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.31%0.5%2026-08-13 21:54
Smarkets◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.34%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.65%0.9%2026-08-13 21:54

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