The School of Odds
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San Lorenzo v Recoleta FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-27 00:30 UTC

Final: San Lorenzo 0–1 Recoleta FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Prediction 67.79%1.48fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -5.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.87%67.74%68.00%69.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.361.361.4476.92%73.57%73.53%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Recoleta FC (Visit)

Prediction 11.31%8.84fair odd
EV +7.46%
Edge +0.785%
Kelly +0.877%
Growth +0.065%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.27%11.30%11.31%12.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.418.509.5014.29%11.89%11.76%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.89%4.79fair odd
EV -0.754%
Edge -0.159%
Kelly -0.201%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.31%20.96%20.69%23.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.454.504.7525.00%22.48%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 67.79%; Recoleta FC (Visit): 11.31%; Draw: 20.89%. For Recoleta FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.84. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.46%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 69.19%EV -4.41%E -3.13%K -10.75%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.27%EV +7.46%E +0.785%K +0.877%G +0.065%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.54%EV -0.754%E -0.159%K -0.201%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-26 23:40
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 23:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 23:38
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 23:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 23:40
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 68.18%EV -2.38%E -1.65%K -5.40%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.16%EV -0.460%E -0.052%K -0.059%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.67%EV -0.754%E -0.159%K -0.201%G +0.000%1.9%2026-05-27 00:20
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.45%EV -6.44%E -4.67%K -16.96%G +0.000%8.68I 11.52%NM 10.88%EV -1.82%E -0.209%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.67%EV -4.52%E -0.988%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-27 00:20
Coolbet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -3.05%E -2.14%K -7.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.29%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.57%EV -7.02%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-27 00:10
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -6.44%E -4.67%K -16.96%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-27 00:10
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-27 00:18
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%EV -5.09%E -3.63%K -12.72%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -16.42%E -4.11%K -5.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-27 00:10
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-27 00:10
LeoVegas🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-26 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-26 23:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-26 23:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-26 23:38
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-26 23:40
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.04%EV -11.87%E -9.13%K -39.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.56%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-05-27 00:10
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.23%EV -7.12%E -5.20%K -19.25%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.10%EV -6.12%E -0.737%K -0.838%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -11.20%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-27 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.81%EV -5.09%E -3.63%K -12.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -9.11%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 00:00
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-27 00:10
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-27 00:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-27 00:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-27 00:20
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -12.25%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-27 00:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.38%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.09%EV -17.43%E -2.39%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV -14.34%E -3.50%K -4.62%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-27 00:10
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -20.82%E -2.97%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -12.25%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-27 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.88%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.45%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%0.8%2026-05-27 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%0.9%2026-05-27 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%0.9%2026-05-27 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24%0.9%2026-05-27 00:10
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14%1.3%2026-05-27 00:10