La escuela de los momiosEspañol
San Lorenzo v Recoleta FC
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
San Lorenzo (Local)
Predicción 67.79%1.48momio equitativo
EV -2.38%
Ventaja -1.65%
Kelly -5.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.87%67.74%68.00%69.19%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.301.361.361.4476.92%73.57%73.53%69.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Recoleta FC (Visitante)
Predicción 11.31%8.84momio equitativo
EV +7.46%
Ventaja +0.785%
Kelly +0.877%
Crecimiento +0.065%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.50
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.27%11.30%11.31%12.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
7.008.418.509.5014.29%11.89%11.76%10.53%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 20.89%4.79momio equitativo
EV -0.754%
Ventaja -0.159%
Kelly -0.201%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.31%20.96%20.69%23.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.454.504.7525.00%22.48%22.22%21.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (27 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.19%EV -4.41%E -3.13%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.27%EV +7.46%E +0.785%K +0.877%G +0.065% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.54%EV -0.754%E -0.159%K -0.201%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| Casumo | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 23:39 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 23:38 |
| Unibet | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| 1xBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.18%EV -2.38%E -1.65%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.16%EV -0.460%E -0.052%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.67%EV -0.754%E -0.159%K -0.201%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.45%EV -6.44%E -4.67%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 8.68I 11.52%NM 10.88%EV -1.82%E -0.209%K -0.237%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.67%EV -4.52%E -0.988%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -3.05%E -2.14%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.29%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.57%EV -7.02%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| DraftKings | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -6.44%E -4.67%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Bovada | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-27 00:18 |
| betfred_uk | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%EV -5.09%E -3.63%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -16.42%E -4.11%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:39 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:38 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.04%EV -11.87%E -9.13%K -39.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.56%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.23%EV -7.12%E -5.20%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.10%EV -6.12%E -0.737%K -0.838%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -11.20%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.81%EV -5.09%E -3.63%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -9.11%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-27 00:00 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| William Hill | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -12.25%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.38%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.09%EV -17.43%E -2.39%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV -14.34%E -3.50%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Coral | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -20.82%E -2.97%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -12.25%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.88% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.45% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67% | 0.8% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Smarkets | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14% | 1.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |