L’École des cotesFrançais
San Lorenzo v Recoleta FC
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
San Lorenzo (Local)
Prévision 67.79%1.48cote équitable
EV -2.38%
Avantage -1.65%
Kelly -5.40%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.44
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
65.87%67.74%68.00%69.19%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.301.361.361.4476.92%73.57%73.53%69.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Recoleta FC (Visiteur)
Prévision 11.31%8.84cote équitable
EV +7.46%
Avantage +0.785%
Kelly +0.877%
Croissance +0.065%
avec la cote maximale 9.50
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.27%11.30%11.31%12.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
7.008.418.509.5014.29%11.89%11.76%10.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 20.89%4.79cote équitable
EV -0.754%
Avantage -0.159%
Kelly -0.201%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 4.75
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
20.31%20.96%20.69%23.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.454.504.7525.00%22.48%22.22%21.05%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (27 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.19%EV -4.41%E -3.13%K -10.75%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.27%EV +7.46%E +0.785%K +0.877%G +0.065% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.54%EV -0.754%E -0.159%K -0.201%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| Casumo | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 23:39 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 23:38 |
| Unibet | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.12%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV +1.80%E +0.200%K +0.225%G +0.004% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.44%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| 1xBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.18%EV -2.38%E -1.65%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 11.16%EV -0.460%E -0.052%K -0.059%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.67%EV -0.754%E -0.159%K -0.201%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.45%EV -6.44%E -4.67%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 8.68I 11.52%NM 10.88%EV -1.82%E -0.209%K -0.237%G +0.000% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.67%EV -4.52%E -0.988%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Coolbet | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -3.05%E -2.14%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.29%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.57%EV -7.02%E -1.58%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| DraftKings | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.38%EV -6.44%E -4.67%K -16.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Bovada | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.70%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.31%EV -3.89%E -0.845%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-27 00:18 |
| betfred_uk | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%EV -5.09%E -3.63%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.87%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -16.42%E -4.11%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| SportsBet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| LeoVegas | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:39 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:38 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.71%EV -10.51%E -7.96%K -32.85%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.67%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-26 23:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.04%EV -11.87%E -9.13%K -39.56%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.56%EV -3.85%E -0.453%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.40%EV -8.07%E -1.83%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| NordicBet | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.23%EV -7.12%E -5.20%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.10%EV -6.12%E -0.737%K -0.838%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -11.20%E -2.64%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.81%EV -5.09%E -3.63%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.50%EV -9.11%E -2.09%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-27 00:00 |
| 888sport | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| William Hill | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.98%E -1.33%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-27 00:20 |
| Sky Bet | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.43%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -9.51%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.35%EV -12.25%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.33I 75.19%NM 66.38%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.80%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.09%EV -17.43%E -2.39%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.53%EV -14.34%E -3.50%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Coral | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -7.80%E -5.73%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -20.82%E -2.97%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -12.25%E -2.92%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.88% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.45% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67% | 0.8% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.32% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.44% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.24% | 0.9% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |
| Smarkets | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.99% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.87% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.14% | 1.3% | 2026-05-27 00:10 |