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River Plate v Independiente Santa Fe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
River Plate (Local)
Prediction 74.49%1.34fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -10.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.00%74.27%74.65%76.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.3083.33%80.77%80.65%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Independiente Santa Fe (Visit)
Prediction 7.49%13.36fair odd
EV +12.30%
Edge +0.820%
Kelly +0.878%
Growth +0.108%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.49%7.59%7.49%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0011.9212.0015.0011.11%8.39%8.33%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.02%5.55fair odd
EV +4.52%
Edge +0.779%
Kelly +0.942%
Growth +0.043%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.50%18.14%17.87%20.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.185.205.8021.28%19.29%19.23%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 74.49%; Independiente Santa Fe (Visit): 7.49%; Draw: 18.02%. For Independiente Santa Fe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.71%EV -5.39%E -4.25%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.49%EV +12.30%E +0.820%K +0.878%G +0.108% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.80%EV +4.52%E +0.779%K +0.942%G +0.043% | 2.6% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.90%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.79%G +0.000% | 13.06I 7.66%NM 7.21%EV -2.23%E -0.170%K -0.184%G +0.000% | 5.57I 17.95%NM 16.90%EV +0.375%E +0.067%K +0.082%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.64%EV -3.16%E -2.43%K -10.53%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.26%EV -2.67%E -0.206%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.09%EV -15.30%E -3.26%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-26 23:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.47%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -2.67%E -0.206%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -2.69%E -0.498%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.47%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -2.67%E -0.206%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -2.69%E -0.498%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.47%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -2.67%E -0.206%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -2.69%E -0.498%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.47%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.79%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.20%EV -2.67%E -0.206%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -2.69%E -0.498%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.25%EV -8.37%E -6.81%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.12%EV -2.67%E -0.206%K -0.223%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.63%EV -5.39%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.82%EV -8.37%E -6.81%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -6.42%E -0.513%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -13.50%E -2.81%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-27 00:22 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -6.88%E -5.51%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.85%EV -10.16%E -0.847%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV +0.916%E +0.164%K +0.199%G +0.002% | 6.2% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.02%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.79%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.75%EV -10.16%E -0.847%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -2.69%E -0.498%K -0.611%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.85%EV -6.88%E -5.51%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -10.16%E -0.847%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -9.90%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-27 00:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -9.12%E -7.47%K -41.45%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -10.16%E -0.847%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -0.886%E -0.161%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.28%EV -6.88%E -5.51%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -10.16%E -0.847%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -13.50%E -2.81%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.28%EV -6.88%E -5.51%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV -10.16%E -0.847%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.08%EV -13.50%E -2.81%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.56%EV -8.37%E -6.81%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.97%EV -13.90%E -1.21%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -5.39%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.39%EV -10.61%E -8.84%K -53.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.76%EV -13.90%E -1.21%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -9.90%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.39%EV -10.61%E -8.84%K -53.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.76%EV -13.90%E -1.21%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -9.90%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.39%EV -10.61%E -8.84%K -53.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.76%EV -13.90%E -1.21%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -9.90%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.39%EV -10.61%E -8.84%K -53.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.76%EV -13.90%E -1.21%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -9.90%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.31%EV -7.63%E -6.15%K -31.79%G +0.000% | 11.40I 8.77%NM 8.19%EV -14.65%E -1.29%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.66I 17.67%NM 16.50%EV +2.00%E +0.353%K +0.429%G +0.009% | 7.1% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.52%EV -4.65%E -3.63%K -16.60%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -17.65%E -1.60%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -5.39%E -1.03%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.55%EV -5.39%E -4.25%K -19.98%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -17.65%E -1.60%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.96%EV -6.29%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -6.88%E -5.51%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -17.65%E -1.60%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -9.90%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.12%EV -10.61%E -8.84%K -53.04%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.09%EV -17.65%E -1.60%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -9.90%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.33%EV -9.12%E -7.47%K -41.45%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.29%EV -28.88%E -3.04%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.38%EV -13.50%E -2.81%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-27 00:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.00%EV -6.88%E -5.51%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -32.62%E -3.62%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.00%EV -9.90%E -1.98%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 76.01% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.11% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88% | 0.4% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.59% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.07% | 1.0% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.12% | 14.50I 6.90%NM 6.82% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.06% | 1.1% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.37% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.31% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.32% | 1.3% | 2026-08-27 00:29 |