The School of Odds
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Recoleta FC v Boca Juniors

Kickoff: 2026-08-18 22:00 UTC

Final: Recoleta FC 0–4 Boca Juniors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Recoleta FC (Local)

Prediction 16.19%6.18fair odd
EV +5.26%
Edge +0.810%
Kelly +0.957%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.81%16.09%16.20%17.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.785.756.5019.05%17.30%17.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 61.36%1.63fair odd
EV -4.27%
Edge -2.74%
Kelly -7.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.84%61.33%61.35%62.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.531.5669.44%66.12%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.44%4.46fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -0.651%
Kelly -0.847%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.91%22.58%22.45%25.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.973.904.3327.78%25.18%25.64%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Recoleta FC (Local): 16.19%; Boca Juniors (Visit): 61.36%; Draw: 22.44%. For Recoleta FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +5.26%E +0.810%K +0.957%G +0.050%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.71%EV -4.27%E -2.74%K -7.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.48%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-18 21:55
Coolbet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV +3.64%E +0.569%K +0.675%G +0.025%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.38%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.60%EV -4.62%E -1.09%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-18 21:25
Unibet (NL)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -1.22%E -0.199%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.86%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-18 21:55
Casumo🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -1.22%E -0.199%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.86%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-18 21:55
Unibet🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -1.22%E -0.199%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.86%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-18 21:55
Svenska Spel🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.26%EV -1.22%E -0.199%K -0.238%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.86%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.88%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-18 21:55
LeoVegas🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -2.83%E -0.472%K -0.567%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.18%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.97%EV -2.82%E -0.651%K -0.847%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-18 21:35
DraftKings🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -2.83%E -0.472%K -0.567%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -3.49%E -0.813%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-18 21:45
SportsBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.56%EV -4.45%E -0.755%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.04%EV -9.18%E -6.21%K -19.13%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-18 21:45
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.52%EV -4.45%E -0.755%K -0.909%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.06%EV -4.89%E -3.15%K -8.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -19.20%E -5.33%K -7.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-18 21:35
Codere (IT)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -6.07%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.09%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-18 21:39
Unibet (UK)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.26%EV -6.88%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.49%EV -6.73%E -4.43%K -12.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -5.74%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-18 21:40
Bovada🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -6.88%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -7.98%E -1.95%K -2.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-18 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -6.88%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 60.50%EV -9.80%E -6.66%K -20.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.04%EV -16.96%E -4.58%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-18 21:55
PMU (FR)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -6.88%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 60.50%EV -9.80%E -6.66%K -20.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.04%EV -16.96%E -4.58%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-18 21:55
LiveScore Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -6.88%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 60.50%EV -9.80%E -6.66%K -20.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.04%EV -16.96%E -4.58%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-18 21:55
Virgin Bet🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -6.88%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 60.50%EV -9.80%E -6.66%K -20.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.04%EV -16.96%E -4.58%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-18 21:55
Pinnacle🎯5.67I 17.64%NM 16.70%EV -8.18%E -1.44%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.08%EV -4.89%E -3.15%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.22%EV -4.39%E -1.03%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-18 21:55
1xBet🎯5.61I 17.83%NM 16.65%EV -9.15%E -1.63%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.67%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.68%EV -7.53%E -1.83%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-18 21:55
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.93%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.96%E -5.30%K -15.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -5.74%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-18 21:55
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -10.93%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-18 21:50
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -10.93%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-18 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -10.93%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-18 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -10.93%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-18 21:50
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.93%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.64%E -8.08%K -26.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -10.23%E -2.56%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-18 21:15
Sky Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -10.93%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -11.64%E -8.08%K -26.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-18 21:15
Unibet (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.44%EV -12.55%E -2.32%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 60.80%EV -10.41%E -7.13%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -12.47%E -3.20%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-18 21:40
Coral🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.15%EV -14.98%E -2.85%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.84%EV -6.12%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.01%EV -15.84%E -4.22%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-18 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%0.8%2026-08-18 21:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%0.8%2026-08-18 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 15.04%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.41%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%0.8%2026-08-18 21:55
Smarkets◎6.40I 15.63%NM 15.31%1.57I 63.69%NM 62.42%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.0%2026-08-18 21:55