The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Puerto Cabello v Club Cienciano

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 00:30 UTC

Final: Puerto Cabello 3–0 Club Cienciano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Puerto Cabello (Local)

Prediction 46.48%2.15fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.20%46.57%46.41%48.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.961.952.1054.05%51.05%51.28%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Club Cienciano (Visit)

Prediction 24.63%4.06fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.371%
Kelly -0.495%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%24.49%24.69%25.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.793.804.0027.78%26.38%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.89%3.46fair odd
EV +1.12%
Edge +0.319%
Kelly +0.447%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%28.94%28.90%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.243.253.5032.79%30.88%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puerto Cabello (Local): 46.48%; Club Cienciano (Visit): 24.63%; Draw: 28.89%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.46. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%EV -7.04%E -3.52%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.14%EV -1.49%E -0.371%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.59%EV +1.12%E +0.319%K +0.447%G +0.005%3.6%2026-05-06 00:05
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.37%EV -9.36%E -4.80%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -2.72%E -0.688%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -1.77%E -0.521%K -0.738%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-06 00:05
Casumo🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.50%EV -9.83%E -5.07%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -2.72%E -0.688%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -1.77%E -0.521%K -0.738%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.50%EV -9.83%E -5.07%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -2.72%E -0.688%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -1.77%E -0.521%K -0.738%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 00:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.50%EV -9.83%E -5.07%K -10.45%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -2.72%E -0.688%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.68%EV -1.77%E -0.521%K -0.738%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 00:04
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.81%EV -6.57%E -3.27%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 28.43%EV -4.37%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 00:04
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -4.71%E -2.30%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.66%E -1.41%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 00:10
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.20%EV -2.39%E -1.14%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.59%EV -8.63%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 00:24
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.52%EV -7.97%E -4.02%K -8.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -1.49%E -0.371%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 00:14
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.69%EV -7.04%E -3.52%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 00:18
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.63%EV -7.97%E -4.02%K -8.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -8.87%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-06 00:09
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -9.36%E -4.80%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.64%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 00:04
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.23%EV -12.62%E -6.71%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-06 00:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.23%EV -12.62%E -6.71%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-06 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.23%EV -12.62%E -6.71%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-06 00:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.23%EV -12.62%E -6.71%K -14.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.90%EV -6.11%E -1.88%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-06 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -7.04%E -3.52%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-06 00:15
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.36%E -4.80%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -6.41%E -1.69%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-06 00:24
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.48%EV -11.22%E -5.88%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -7.64%E -2.04%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.34%EV -7.55%E -2.36%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-06 00:20
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.04%E -3.52%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -8.87%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 00:20
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.04%E -3.52%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -8.87%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 00:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.04%E -3.52%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -8.87%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -7.04%E -3.52%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.73%EV -8.87%E -2.40%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-06 00:20
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.36%E -4.80%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -11.34%E -3.15%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-06 00:04
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.58%EV -11.22%E -5.88%K -12.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -11.34%E -3.15%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.70%EV -10.44%E -3.37%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-06 00:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.32%EV -14.01%E -7.57%K -16.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.98%EV -10.11%E -2.77%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -11.88%E -3.90%K -5.80%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-06 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-05-06 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-05-06 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.58%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%1.0%2026-05-06 00:25
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.5%2026-05-06 00:20
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.35%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.38%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.27%2.5%2026-05-06 00:15