The School of Odds
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Palestino v Montevideo City Torque

Kickoff: 2026-04-15 00:30 UTC

Final: Palestino 0–2 Montevideo City Torque

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Palestino (Local)

Prediction 36.61%2.73fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.98%37.08%36.61%39.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.462.452.6244.44%40.68%40.82%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montevideo City Torque (Visit)

Prediction 32.09%3.12fair odd
EV +2.69%
Edge +0.841%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.13%31.76%32.09%32.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.953.2037.04%34.09%33.90%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.30%3.20fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.529%
Kelly +0.764%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.91%31.17%31.30%32.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.013.003.2534.72%33.17%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Palestino (Local): 36.61%; Montevideo City Torque (Visit): 32.09%; Draw: 31.30%. For Montevideo City Torque (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.69%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.63%EV +2.69%E +0.841%K +1.22%G +0.033%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.16%EV +1.72%E +0.529%K +0.764%G +0.013%2.0%2026-04-15 00:15
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV +1.09%E +0.345%K +0.506%G +0.006%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -4.54%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-15 00:05
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -11.04%E -4.54%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -0.517%E -0.167%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -2.98%E -0.960%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-15 00:15
Casumo🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -11.04%E -4.54%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -0.517%E -0.167%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -2.98%E -0.960%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-15 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -11.04%E -4.54%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -0.517%E -0.167%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -2.98%E -0.960%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-15 00:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -11.04%E -4.54%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -0.517%E -0.167%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -2.98%E -0.960%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-15 00:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -13.97%E -5.94%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -2.12%E -0.695%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -4.54%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-15 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -14.70%E -6.31%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -3.73%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-15 00:15
LeoVegas🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -14.70%E -6.31%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -3.73%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-15 00:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -14.70%E -6.31%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -3.73%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.42%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-15 00:15
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.99%EV -4.08%E -1.56%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.53%EV -4.37%E -1.47%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.48%EV -0.472%E -0.148%K -0.216%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-15 00:19
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.49%EV -4.45%E -1.70%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.07%EV -4.69%E -1.58%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.44%EV -5.17%E -1.71%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-15 00:15
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -4.81%E -1.85%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -5.33%E -1.81%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-15 00:20
NordicBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.98%EV -5.55%E -2.15%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.79%EV -6.29%E -2.16%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -9.86%E -3.42%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-15 00:20
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.59%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.87%EV -7.90%E -2.75%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.54%EV -9.24%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-15 00:05
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -6.64%E -2.61%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -8.54%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.54%E -1.49%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-15 00:20
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.14%E -3.62%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-15 00:15
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.14%E -3.62%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-15 00:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.14%E -3.62%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-15 00:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -8.47%E -3.39%K -5.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -10.14%E -3.62%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-15 00:15
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.77%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -10.14%E -3.62%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -9.24%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-15 00:05
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -12.87%E -5.41%K -9.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -10.14%E -3.62%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -6.11%E -2.04%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-15 00:05
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -11.75%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.03%EV -9.86%E -3.42%K -5.25%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-15 00:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.55%EV -17.63%E -7.83%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.54%EV -11.75%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.91%EV -9.24%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-15 00:15
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -10.30%E -4.21%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -13.35%E -4.95%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.70%EV -9.24%E -3.18%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-15 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.19%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.15%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.66%0.3%2026-04-15 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-04-15 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-04-15 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.91%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%1.1%2026-04-15 00:20
Smarkets◎2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.01%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.00%2.4%2026-04-15 00:20