Language:English
Orense SC v Macará
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Orense SC (Local)
Prediction 48.51%2.06fair odd
EV -3.94%
Edge -1.99%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.98
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.70%48.36%48.21%49.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.921.931.9854.05%52.15%51.81%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Macará (Visit)
Prediction 21.24%4.71fair odd
EV +1.10%
Edge +0.230%
Kelly +0.291%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 4.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.94%21.32%21.57%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.244.254.7626.32%23.58%23.53%21.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 30.25%3.31fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.64%30.32%30.22%31.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.983.083.103.2033.56%32.42%32.26%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orense SC (Local): 48.51%; Macará (Visit): 21.24%; Draw: 30.25%. For Macará (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.71. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.10%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.93%EV -5.88%E -3.03%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 19.94%EV +1.10%E +0.230%K +0.291%G +0.003% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -7.75%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 21:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.43%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.09%EV -0.179%E -0.038%K -0.048%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.48%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 17:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.27%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 4.46I 22.42%NM 20.89%EV -5.28%E -1.18%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.85%EV -8.65%E -2.87%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -6.55%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 09:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -6.55%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 09:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -6.55%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 09:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -6.55%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 09:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.75%EV -6.37%E -3.30%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -6.55%E -1.49%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 09:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.13%EV -7.82%E -4.12%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.71%EV -8.67%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -3.21%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-03 04:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV -8.79%E -4.68%K -9.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -8.67%E -2.02%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.67%EV -6.23%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-05 20:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.84%EV -9.76%E -5.25%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.37%EV -9.74%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -7.75%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-05 20:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.98%EV -10.25%E -5.54%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.32%EV -9.74%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.71%EV -7.75%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-05 20:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.98%EV -10.25%E -5.54%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.32%EV -9.74%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.71%EV -7.75%E -2.54%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-05 20:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.34%E -3.84%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -10.80%E -2.57%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-05 09:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.70%EV -3.94%E -1.99%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.28%EV -11.86%E -2.86%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.03%EV -9.86%E -3.31%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 17:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.74%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV -12.92%E -3.15%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.72%E -1.50%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -7.82%E -4.12%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -15.05%E -3.76%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -3.21%E -1.00%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -15.05%E -3.76%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -15.05%E -3.76%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-06 00:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -15.05%E -3.76%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -5.40%E -2.77%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -15.05%E -3.76%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -9.26%E -3.09%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-06 00:01 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.89%EV -7.82%E -4.12%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -15.05%E -3.76%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -6.23%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.25%E -5.54%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -19.29%E -5.08%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -6.23%E -2.01%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.41% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.61% | 2.1% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.95% | 2.6% | 2026-03-06 00:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.95% | 2.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.74% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.31% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.95% | 2.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.89% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.70% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41% | 2.8% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |