The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Olimpia Asunción v Barracas Central

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 00:00 UTC

Final: Olimpia Asunción 0–0 Barracas Central

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Olimpia Asunción (Local)

Prediction 57.48%1.74fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.25%57.56%57.48%59.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.621.611.7165.36%61.68%62.11%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barracas Central (Visit)

Prediction 15.80%6.33fair odd
EV +3.36%
Edge +0.514%
Kelly +0.607%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 6.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.48%15.66%15.80%17.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.815.756.5420.00%17.20%17.39%15.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.71%3.74fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -0.989%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%26.78%26.71%27.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.413.403.6130.77%29.36%29.41%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Olimpia Asunción (Local): 57.48%; Barracas Central (Visit): 15.80%; Draw: 26.71%. For Barracas Central (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.33. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.20%EV -8.03%E -5.02%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.48%EV +3.36%E +0.514%K +0.607%G +0.020%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-15 23:55
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.10%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.97%G +0.000%6.46I 15.48%NM 15.02%EV +2.10%E +0.325%K +0.384%G +0.008%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.88%EV -3.57%E -0.989%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-15 23:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.97%EV -1.70%E -0.996%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.97%EV -3.59%E -0.589%K -0.704%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.06%EV -3.84%E -1.07%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-15 23:39
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.89%EV -4.58%E -2.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -5.17%E -0.862%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.85%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-15 23:39
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.89%EV -4.58%E -2.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -5.17%E -0.862%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.85%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-15 23:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.89%EV -4.58%E -2.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -5.17%E -0.862%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.85%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-15 23:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.89%EV -4.58%E -2.76%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.74%EV -5.17%E -0.862%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.85%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-15 23:39
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.93%EV -6.88%E -4.24%K -11.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -5.17%E -0.862%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-15 23:54
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.56%EV -8.03%E -5.02%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -5.17%E -0.862%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-15 23:54
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.64%EV -8.03%E -5.02%K -13.38%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.63%EV -6.75%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.73%EV -7.85%E -2.27%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-15 23:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -6.88%E -4.24%K -11.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.91%EV -8.33%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -9.18%E -2.70%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-15 23:40
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.49%EV -6.88%E -4.24%K -11.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.78%EV -8.33%E -1.44%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-15 23:54
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.23%EV -5.73%E -3.49%K -8.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -9.12%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-15 23:53
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.95%EV -8.03%E -5.02%K -13.38%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -9.12%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -10.52%E -3.14%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-15 23:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.95%EV -8.03%E -5.02%K -13.38%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -9.12%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -10.52%E -3.14%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-15 23:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.95%EV -8.03%E -5.02%K -13.38%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.85%EV -9.12%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -10.52%E -3.14%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-15 23:39
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.56%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -9.12%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 23:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.56%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -9.12%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 23:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.56%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -9.12%E -1.59%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.60%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-15 23:54
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.56%EV -3.43%E -2.04%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.67%EV -9.91%E -1.74%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -5.17%E -1.46%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.01%EV -6.88%E -4.24%K -11.09%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-15 23:49
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.78%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.21%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-15 23:54
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.54%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.32%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-15 23:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 56.84%EV -12.05%E -7.88%K -22.74%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.41%EV -16.24%E -3.06%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.76%EV -13.19%E -4.06%K -5.86%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-15 23:44
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -7.45%E -4.63%K -12.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.79%EV -20.98%E -4.20%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -11.85%E -3.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-15 23:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.85%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.63%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52%0.5%2026-04-15 23:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.50%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-04-15 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.64%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78%0.9%2026-04-15 23:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.64%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78%0.9%2026-04-15 23:45
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.46%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.79%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.75%2.4%2026-04-15 23:54