The School of Odds

O'Higgins v Boca Juniors

2026-07-31 00:30 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

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Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

O'Higgins (Local)

Prediction 27.13%3.69fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.497%
Kelly -0.687%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.87%27.18%27.13%28.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.403.6233%30%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Boca Juniors (Visit)

Prediction 44.24%2.26fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.26%44.17%44.24%45.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.072.082.1851%48%48%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.64%3.49fair odd
EV +1.09%
Edge +0.307%
Kelly +0.429%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.22%28.65%28.64%28.82%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.253.253.5333%31%31%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet3.62I 27.62%NM 27.07%EV -1.80%E -0.497%K -0.687%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.16%EV -4.01%E -1.85%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.76%EV +1.09%E +0.307%K +0.429%G +0.005%2.0%2026-07-24 12:39
SportsBet3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -13.19%E -4.12%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.99%E -3.84%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -4.07%E -1.21%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-24 11:50
Coolbet3.45I 28.99%NM 27.56%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.62%EV -3.56%E -1.64%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.82%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-24 11:10
LeoVegas3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 11:10
betfred_uk3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -13.19%E -4.12%K -6.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-24 11:50
Paddy Power3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -15.90%E -5.13%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -9.32%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-24 11:50
NordicBet3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -6.41%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.59%EV -7.99%E -3.84%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-24 13:05
Codere (IT)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.23%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.29%EV -7.55%E -3.61%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-24 11:10
Unibet (UK)3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -7.99%E -3.84%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-24 11:10
888sport3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.32%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-24 11:50
William Hill3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.32%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-24 11:50
888sport (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.32%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-24 11:50
Mr Green (SE)3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.77%E -2.28%K -3.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -9.32%E -4.54%K -8.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-24 11:50
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 28.84%EV -18.62%E -6.21%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.26%EV -11.53%E -5.76%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%15.6%2026-07-24 11:50
Unibet (FR)3.20I 31.25%NM 27.28%EV -13.19%E -4.12%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.09%EV -12.41%E -6.27%K -12.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.62%EV -12.66%E -4.15%K -6.18%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-24 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.20I 31.25%NM 27.40%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.85%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.75%14.0%2026-07-24 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 12:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-24 12:05