The School of Odds
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Montevideo City Torque v Palestino

Kickoff: 2026-05-06 22:00 UTC

Final: Montevideo City Torque 1–0 Palestino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque (Local)

Prediction 51.05%1.96fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.69%51.05%50.94%52.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.821.831.9257.14%54.95%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palestino (Visit)

Prediction 20.51%4.88fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.235%
Kelly -0.296%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.67%20.46%20.60%22.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.444.504.8225.00%22.52%22.22%20.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.44%3.52fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.546%
Kelly -0.769%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.50%28.50%28.46%29.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.263.4532.26%30.62%30.67%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 51.05%; Palestino (Visit): 20.51%; Draw: 28.44%. For Palestino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.82, with an expected value of -1.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.66%EV -1.99%E -1.04%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.15%EV -5.64%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV -1.88%E -0.546%K -0.769%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-06 21:45
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -4.03%E -2.14%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.48%EV -4.62%E -0.993%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV -6.15%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-06 21:35
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.07%EV -5.05%E -2.72%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.87%EV -1.95%E -0.408%K -0.516%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.05%EV -7.00%E -2.14%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 21:55
Unibet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.80%EV -5.05%E -2.72%K -5.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.00%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.20%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 21:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 21:45
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 21:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 21:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.48%EV -5.56%E -3.01%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -9.75%E -2.22%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.30%EV -6.15%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 21:50
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.65%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -5.64%E -1.23%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -3.31%E -0.972%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 21:45
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.96%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.20%EV -9.75%E -2.22%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -4.73%E -1.41%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-06 21:44
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -11.84%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 21:45
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -11.84%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 21:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -11.84%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 21:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -11.84%E -3.82%K -5.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-06 21:45
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -6.58%E -3.60%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -13.85%E -3.30%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-06 21:40
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.79%EV -7.09%E -3.90%K -8.65%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.77%EV -8.72%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 21:50
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.37%EV -7.60%E -4.20%K -9.39%G +0.000%4.82I 20.75%NM 19.67%EV -1.13%E -0.235%K -0.296%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.96%EV -3.59%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-06 21:45
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.69%EV -8.11%E -4.51%K -10.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.36%EV -17.95%E -4.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -8.99%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-06 21:45
LeoVegas🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.84%EV -8.62%E -4.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 21:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.84%EV -8.62%E -4.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 21:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.84%EV -8.62%E -4.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.84%EV -8.62%E -4.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -11.80%E -2.74%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.00%EV -7.57%E -2.33%K -3.36%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-06 21:45
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -10.67%E -6.09%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -7.69%E -1.71%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -6.15%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-06 21:45
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -10.67%E -6.09%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -9.75%E -2.22%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -6.15%E -1.86%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-06 21:45
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -10.67%E -6.09%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -13.85%E -3.30%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -8.99%E -2.81%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-06 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.83%EV -10.67%E -6.09%K -14.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.93%EV -12.82%E -3.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.24%EV -10.41%E -3.31%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-06 21:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.08%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.90%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.02%0.5%2026-05-06 21:55
Matchbook◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-05-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 52.21%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%0.8%2026-05-06 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.35%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-05-06 21:55
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.40%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.60%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.00%2.0%2026-05-06 21:55