The School of Odds
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Montevideo City Torque v Grêmio

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 00:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque (Local)

Prediction 29.58%3.38fair odd
EV +6.49%
Edge +1.80%
Kelly +2.50%
Growth +0.162%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.78%29.64%29.65%30.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.273.233.6033.90%30.56%31.01%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grêmio (Visit)

Prediction 39.49%2.53fair odd
EV -4.82%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.26%39.37%39.46%42.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.302.4146.51%43.85%43.48%41.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.93%3.23fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.820%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.01%30.99%30.89%32.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.972.963.1536.36%33.64%33.73%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 29.58%; Grêmio (Visit): 39.49%; Draw: 30.93%. For Montevideo City Torque (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV +6.49%E +1.80%K +2.50%G +0.162%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-09 00:29
1xBet🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 27.11%EV +5.90%E +1.65%K +2.29%G +0.135%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.48%EV -7.59%E -3.24%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.41%EV -4.44%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-09 00:29
Unibet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -11.93%E -5.35%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 00:30
Casumo🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -11.93%E -5.35%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 00:29
Unibet (NL)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -11.93%E -5.35%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 00:29
Svenska Spel🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -11.93%E -5.35%K -9.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 00:29
Virgin Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV +0.577%E +0.170%K +0.240%G +0.001%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -13.91%E -6.38%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 00:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV +0.577%E +0.170%K +0.240%G +0.001%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-09 00:30
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV +0.577%E +0.170%K +0.240%G +0.001%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-09 00:30
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV +0.577%E +0.170%K +0.240%G +0.001%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-09 00:29
Pinnacle🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.54%EV -4.82%E -2.00%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.14%EV -5.37%E -1.75%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-09 00:29
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.00%EV -6.80%E -2.88%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.95%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-09 00:29
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 00:29
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 00:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-09 00:29
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.68%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.80%EV -11.24%E -3.92%K -6.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-09 00:29
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-09 00:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-09 00:30
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-09 00:29
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.77%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -7.84%E -2.63%K -3.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-09 00:29
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.26%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-09 00:29
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.26%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-09 00:29
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.26%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-09 00:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -12.74%E -4.32%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.48%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-09 00:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04%0.7%2026-04-09 00:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89%1.2%2026-04-09 00:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%1.2%2026-04-09 00:30
Matchbook◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39%1.2%2026-04-09 00:30
Smarkets◎3.50I 28.57%NM 27.92%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.04%2.3%2026-04-09 00:30