L’École des cotesFrançais
Montevideo City Torque v Grêmio
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Montevideo City Torque (Local)
Prévision 29.58%3.38cote équitable
EV +6.49%
Avantage +1.80%
Kelly +2.50%
Croissance +0.162%
avec la cote maximale 3.60
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.78%29.64%29.65%30.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.953.273.233.6033.90%30.56%31.01%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Grêmio (Visiteur)
Prévision 39.49%2.53cote équitable
EV -4.82%
Avantage -2.00%
Kelly -3.42%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.41
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
38.26%39.37%39.46%42.35%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.152.282.302.4146.51%43.85%43.48%41.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Match nul
Prévision 30.93%3.23cote équitable
EV -2.58%
Avantage -0.820%
Kelly -1.20%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.15
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.01%30.99%30.89%32.34%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.752.972.963.1536.36%33.64%33.73%31.75%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Cotes des opérateurs (24 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%EV +6.49%E +1.80%K +2.50%G +0.162% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.82%EV -2.58%E -0.820%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| 1xBet | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.11%EV +5.90%E +1.65%K +2.29%G +0.135% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.48%EV -7.59%E -3.24%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.41%EV -4.44%E -1.44%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Unibet | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -11.93%E -5.35%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| Casumo | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -11.93%E -5.35%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -11.93%E -5.35%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV +3.53%E +1.01%K +1.41%G +0.050% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.22%EV -11.93%E -5.35%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV +0.577%E +0.170%K +0.240%G +0.001% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.23%EV -13.91%E -6.38%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.69%EV -7.22%E -2.41%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV +0.577%E +0.170%K +0.240%G +0.001% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| LeoVegas | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV +0.577%E +0.170%K +0.240%G +0.001% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV +0.577%E +0.170%K +0.240%G +0.001% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -8.77%E -2.97%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Pinnacle | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.32%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.54%EV -4.82%E -2.00%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.14%EV -5.37%E -1.75%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Coolbet | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -3.86%E -1.19%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.00%EV -6.80%E -2.88%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.95%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| DraftKings | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -5.22%E -2.17%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -4.13%E -1.33%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| SportsBet | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.68%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.80%EV -11.24%E -3.92%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Paddy Power | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -5.34%E -1.67%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.17%E -3.99%K -7.05%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -13.41%E -4.79%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -6.82%E -2.16%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -5.68%E -1.86%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -8.30%E -2.68%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -14.95%E -5.44%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| NordicBet | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.26%EV -9.78%E -3.21%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.77%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 30.97%EV -7.84%E -2.63%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| William Hill | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.26%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| 888sport | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -11.26%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.26%EV -6.01%E -2.52%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.40%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
| Coral | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -11.26%E -3.75%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.14%E -4.95%K -8.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -12.74%E -4.32%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.48%EV -15.09%E -7.02%K -13.12%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.01%EV -10.32%E -3.56%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-09 00:29 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (5)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Match nul | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04% | 0.7% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.25% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.86% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.89% | 1.2% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39% | 1.2% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| Matchbook | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.44% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.16% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.39% | 1.2% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |
| Smarkets | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.92% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.04% | 2.3% | 2026-04-09 00:30 |